Lincoln, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

064
FXUS61 KCAR 041351
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
951 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain south of the region through Monday.
A cold front will approach on Tuesday and cross the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
945am Update...
Delayed the onset of the isolated showers in far Northern Maine
a couple hours based on lack of anything on the radar and
adjusted sky cover a bit based on current trends. Very weak
cold front is presently somewhere around Caribou, but really
hard to pick out.
Previous Discussion...
A cold front will move south across the region today, stall
tonight, then return north Sunday in the form of a warm front.
Aloft, a disturbance crosses northern areas early today before
exiting across the Maritimes this afternoon. Another upper level
disturbance clips northern areas later tonight through early
Sunday in advance of a building upper ridge. The upper ridge
then builds across the region Sunday. Generally expect partly
cloudy skies across northern areas today through Sunday.
However, isolated showers are also possible today then again
later tonight into early Sunday. Generally expect mostly clear
skies Downeast today through Sunday. High temperatures today
will range from the mid 60s to around 70 north, to the lower to
mid 70s Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range from
around 40 to the mid 40s north, to the mid to upper 40s
Downeast. High temperatures Sunday will range from the mid to
upper 70s across much of the forecast area, with lower to mid
70s along the Downeast coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will be to our south Sunday night as strong
upper level ridging remains over the area. The return flow behind
high pressure to our south will continue pushing warm and humid air
across the region bringing a mostly clear and unseasonably warm
night Sunday night with lows in the low to mid 50s.
The high to our south and strong upper ridging will result in mid
summer like warmth with highs topping 80 over most inland locations
under a mostly sunny sky.
Monday night will be another unseasonably warm night as high
pressure slides further south and a cold front begins to approach
from the west. A tightening gradient between the high to our south
and the front nearing from the west will result in a southwesterly
breeze continuing overnight likely keeping the low levels mixed.
The cold front will begin to pres into the area on Tuesday. Showers
ahead of the front may start to push into northwestern parts of the
region during the early to mid afternoon on Tuesday. Forecast
soundings across the north are showing cape up to 200 J/KG Tuesday
afternoon. A sharp frontal boundary will offer surface convergence
that may support convection. Will include isolated thunderstorms in
the northwest Tuesday afternoon given the lapse rates and
convergence. Showers should cover much of the northwestern part of
the area by the end of the day Tuesday as the front pushes in.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front will continue to press across the area Tuesday night
carrying a solid band of showers across the area. Rain amounts of
around a half inch with locally higher amounts seem likely along the
front and some embedded isolated convection can`t be ruled out. Some
of the forecast models including the UKMET and the GFS are
indicating that a shallow wave of low pressure may track along the
front. This could give a band of rain across the area where over an
inch may fall. Models differ considerably on the location of this
band with the UKMET having it across the north, the GFS having it
over central areas and the ICON carrying the band of heavy rain
Downeast.
The cold front will push offshore Wednesday morning. The GFS is a
bit slower with the front keeping some moderate to heavy rain
Downeast through the morning on Wednesday. the ECMWF is faster, and
has the front along with its rain pushing well offshore by mid
morning Wednesday. Gusty northwesterly winds and cooler air will
begin to push into the area Wednesday afternoon behind the front
with partial clearing.
Wednesday night will be much colder under a moonlit sky with lows
dropping below freezing across much of the north and into the 30s
Downeast. The gradient east of a new area of high pressure building
to our west will likely keep a northwesterly breeze overnight. This
will be followed by a mostly sunny, brisk and chilly day on Thursday
with highs in the 50s throughout the area.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Spotty MVFR possible across northern areas 15-18z
today then again later tonight into early Sunday. Isolated
showers possible across northern areas today then again later
tonight into early Sunday. Variable conditions with any patchy
fog late tonight. Otherwise, VFR across northern areas today
into Sunday. Across Downeast areas, variable conditions with any
patchy fog late tonight. Otherwise, VFR Downeast today through
Sunday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest 10 to
15 knots today. Light and variable winds tonight. Variable winds
5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up
to around 20 knots Sunday.
SHORT TERM:
Sunday night...VFR. Light SW wind.
Monday...VFR. Light SW wind.
Tuesday...VFR, lowering to MVFR over the north late. Light SW wind.
Chance of SW Wind shear over the north late.
Tuesday night...IFR north, VFR dropping to IFR south. W wind
becoming NW over the north and SW wind become W over the south.
Chance for SW wind shear.
Wednesday...IFR becoming MVFR then VFR north. IFR south, becoming
MVFR late. NW wind.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today
through Sunday.
SHORT TERM: SW winds may approach SCA in gusts over the
offshore waters Tuesday into Tuesday night. Seas may build to 5
ft Tuesday then 6 ft Tuesday night, dropping back to 5 ft on
Wednesday. Humid air over the waters may cause some mist or fog
to limit visibilities Sunday night through Tuesday. Rain may
limit visibility late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated showers possible across northern Aroostook county
today then again later tonight into early Sunday. A wetting rain is
expected later Tuesday into Wednesday, when rainfall of a quarter
to three quarters of an inch is likely. Could see some gusty
southwest winds to 15-20 mph both Monday and Tuesday afternoon.
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday should see a return of dry
and much cooler conditions with gusty northerly winds.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for Saturday October 4th:
Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               79/2017        66
Bangor                79/2017        76
Millinocket           79/2001        73
Houlton               78/2001        70
Record High Temperatures for Monday October 6th:
Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               74/1946        80
Bangor                84/1946        80
Millinocket           82/1946        82
Houlton               73/1957        81
Record High Temperatures for Tuesday October 7th:
Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High
Caribou               76/2016        76
Bangor                84/1946        78
Millinocket           81/1946        78
Houlton               76/2016        77
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Foisy/Norcross
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Foisy/Norcross/Bloomer
Marine...Foisy/Norcross/Bloomer
Fire Weather...Norcross/Bloomer
Climate...Norcross/Bloomer

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion