062 FXUS63 KPAH 082252 AFDPAHArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 552 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will warm as the week wears on, with 90s making a return by Thursday, and mid 90s potential over the weekend.
- A week of dry weather in store will heighten fire danger as relative humidity values plummet into the 20s and 30s percentile daily.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Surface high pressure dominates the entirety of the Ohio Valley early this week. Its flow keeps warm advection at bay for another day, before return flow and building upper heights start to heat us up again. So in the short term, the sensible weather features of note, other than the spectacular enjoyment of one more day with dew points in the 40s, and highs generally in the 70s, approaching 80 degrees, includes the continued dry environ producing daily RH minimums in the 20s-30s percentile, and the nightly fog patches that guidance hints at daily.
Synoptic pattern evolution with time, briefly aforementioned in part, produces an almost Omega-like blocking pattern here by week`s end. H5 heights crank toward 590 DM, while amplified long wave troffing blasts the West and East coasts. This will lead to a strong warmup heading into mid September, as we see H8 temps around 8C this morning out of the 12Z Nashville sounding...with the models all indicating a marked rise to more than twice that by this weekend. That will be pushing our highs into the 90s by as early as Thursday, with mid 90s by the weekend. Fortunately, dew points rebound thru the 50s, but struggle to pass 60F, and with the large scale subsidence under the mid MS Valley centered ridge, we`ll stay dry. That keeps daily RH minimums a fire planning risk, esp with drought conditions continuing unabated.
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.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 549 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Surface high pressure continues to provide tranquil weather conditions and mostly VFR for area terminals. Brief periods of MIFG is possible in more fog prone locations such as CGI and MVN tonight. Light winds persist overnight with a veering northeast to southeast wind expected on Tuesday with magnitudes up to around 5 kts.
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.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
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NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion