Little Torch Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

330
FXUS62 KKEY 051724
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
124 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Some light showers are possible through this evening but
confidence in location will leave mention of VCSH only in MTH for
the time being. Near surface winds will be northeast to east at 5
to 10 knots.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
What was a busy start to the morning has started to calm down and
now KBYX is only detecting a few isolated light showers in the
deep Gulf waters. While showers are currently limited, the KKEY
12z sounding revealed ample moisture in the atmosphere. MIMIC
Precipitable Water also depicts we are in a very moist
environment. Temperatures across the island chain are currently
in the mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s making for a humid
mid- morning. Along the Reef, winds are northeast to east at near
10 knots. For today, showers will continue to pop up in various
locations across the CWA but coverage is still expected to be just
above near normal for this time of year, though due to the lack
of steering flow, these showers will continue to struggle to
sustain themselves. Winds will slightly slacken in the afternoon
becoming light to gentle. No changes were needed for this update.
Happy Sunday!
&&
.FORECAST...
Issued at 427 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
The aforementioned stationary front will stay true to its name
over the coming days. This boundary will make subtle moves north
and south but in the grand scheme of things it will generally stay
over the Florida Keys. This will result in an active period mired
with scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms at
times. At the same time, a series of weak easterly undulations
will round the base of a broad ridge that extends from the
Mississippi Valley to the central Atlantic.
These undulations will allow rain chances to peak and lull,
meaning there will be days that are wetter than others. As of
right now, there remains uncertainty where and when these impulses
will ripple across the stationary front. For now, will stay the
course and keep advertising with above normal rain chances through
the next several days. Regardless if we get these easterly
undulations to pass through, we will have a moist, deep easterly
flow, which will promote at least above normal rain chances.
Earlier indications were that we would see the broad high build
equatorward across the Keys, but the high looks to stay further
north. As a result, while we will be under the influence of the
high, we are not expecting freshening easterly breezes for the
later half of the forecast period at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1111 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the
Florida Keys. From synopsis, a combination of a stationary
frontal boundary and a weak area of low pressure situated near the
Bahamas will make for a messy weather pattern through the next
several days. This will maintain above normal rain chances through
the entire forecast period. In addition, it will keeps winds
fluctuating between northeast and southeast at times. At this
time, the strongest breezes look to stay north of our waters but
will bear watching for updates.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ076>078.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion