Logan, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

296
FXUS64 KHUN 110839
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
339 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows some mid-level
clouds moving in from the west early this morning. This should
limit any fog development as we head towards sunrise with maybe
the exception across far NE AL within the sheltered valleys. Later
today, a mid- level vort max drops southward across TN. Ongoing
showers that have persisted through the night across NE TN this
morning have been tied to this feature. Therefore, lift from the
vort max will provide a very low chance (10-20%) of a
shower/thunderstorm this afternoon across the local forecast area.
Most locations should remain dry under mostly sunny skies with
temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s with a few locations
in NW AL touching 90F this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Over the course of the short term period, a mid-level vort max
(initially across the southern Appalachians) will dig further
southeastward, eventually deepening into a partially closed
cyclone along the coast of SC by Saturday night. In response to
this and the orientation of a highly amplified 500-mb ridge
(extending from the southern Plains into the Canadian prairie
provinces), mid/high-level winds will veer to NNE and gradually
fall back into the 15-25 knot range, resulting in drying profiles
aloft. Following the departure of any evening showers or
thunderstorms tomorrow, a slightly drier and more stable low-
level airmass will be advected into the region within a light NE
flow regime along the southern periphery of a Canadian surface
high centered well to our northeast, and this will yield a
precipitation-free forecast for the entire period. Due to the dry
nature of the airmass and absence of thermal advection across our
region, highs will warm a degree or so each day (reaching the mid
90s across the west by Saturday). Overnight lows will remain in
the l-m 60s, but may be a few degrees cooler Saturday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Forecast data from the latest suite of global models suggests
that a weakening subtropical high across TX will retrograde
westward into the southern Rockies/southwestern CONUS and adjacent
portions of northern Mexico over the course of the long term
period. However, a slow-moving longwave trough over the northern
Rockies will maintain a narrow but amplified 500-mb ridge
extending northeastward from the departing high into the Great
Lakes and southern Canada. Although the ridge axis is predicted to
be oriented well to our northwest, it will effectively deflect
convective clouds and precipitation (associated with several
smaller scale waves ejecting out of the northern Rockies trough),
with abundant insolation and general lack of clouds contributing
to an extended period of hot/dry weather. Highs each day from
Sunday-Wednesday will range from the u80s-l90s/E to l-m 90s/W, but
with dewpoints in the u50s-l60s, HI values will be near or only a
degree or so warmer than ambient air temperatures. Overnight lows
will remain in the l-m 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
There have been no changes to previous aviation forecast
reasoning, as an approaching upper-lvl disturbance will lead to an
increasing coverage of mid-level clouds early this morning (which
will transition into a sct Cu field by 16Z). Although latest
model guidance offers a wide variety of solutions regarding the
potential coverage of light precipitation (associated with the
same mechanism) later this morning, it is certainly possible that
some very lgt SHRA or sprinkles may occur in the vicinity of the
terminals btwn 10-14Z. A slightly greater risk for showers (and
perhaps a few TSRA) will occur this aftn, beginning around 21Z.
Due to uncertainties regarding the spatial coverage of convection
we have not mentioned anything in the TAFs at this point, but a
PROB30 group may eventually be warranted from 21-3Z.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion