Lone Grove, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

264
FXUS64 KOUN 230542
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Strong to severe storms possible in two rounds, one this
   morning and again this afternoon into this evening.
- Shower and storm chances continue overnight across southern
   Oklahoma and into western north Texas, but severe threat will
   diminish.
- Mainly dry conditions after Wednesday with temperatures slowly
   moderating end of the week into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning across
portions of northwest Oklahoma and will be the main focus through
the remainder of the morning. We have already seen several instances
of wind gusts of 60-70 mph winds across the OK/TX panhandles into
northwest OK over the last few hours. Given weak to moderate
instability and deep layer shear on the order of 40-50 knots, expect
the threat of locally severe wind gusts to continue with this
activity as it pushes across the northern few rows of counties in
our area through sunrise. Can`t rule out a brief spin-up as well
given decent low-level shear exhibited in area hodographs.
Behind this round of convection a cold front will push slowly south
and east through the day, likely positioned near or just
southeast of the I-44 corridor by peak heating. This will serve as
a focus for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon,
with the highest chances across southeast and south-central
Oklahoma, where large hail and damaging wind gusts will once again
be a possibility. The severe threat is expected to wane as we
head into this evening, but shower and thunderstorm chances will
continue across southern Oklahoma and western north TX into the
overnight hours as forcing from the main trough overspreads the
area.
Ware
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Drier and cooler air will filter into the area behind the cold front
on Wednesday morning, aided by surface ridging building southward
across the central Plains. Rain chances will diminish across much of
the area by the afternoon, though a few wraparound showers are
possible across northeast/eastern parts of the area on the
backside of the trough. Highs on Wednesday will drop back into
the 70s to near 80 degrees with lows Wednesday night dipping into
the 50s to near 60. Similar conditions are expected on Thursday
as the trough moves away and surface high pressure settles over
the area.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Upper ridging will build into the area from the west Friday into the
weekend, leading to fairly pleasant conditions with slowly
moderating temperatures, light south or southeast winds, and a
continuation of dry conditions over the region. High will climb into
the mid 80s by Saturday and Sunday, with some readings near 90
possible across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are beginning to move into far
northwestern Oklahoma. Additional development is expected
overnight with thunderstorms mainly impacting the northern third
of Oklahoma. A cold front will move into northwestern Oklahoma
shortly after 12Z Tuesday, and will move across most of the area
by 3-4Z Wednesday. Low cloud development is possible behind the
front with MVFR conditions. Additional showers and thunderstorms
are expected along the front during peak heating. This will mainly
occur south and east of most TAF sites or south central and
southeastern Oklahoma.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  64  76  59 /  40  20  20   0
Hobart OK         90  62  80  57 /  20  30  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  95  65  81  59 /  30  50  30   0
Gage OK           80  57  73  52 /  10  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     85  63  75  56 /  70  10  30  10
Durant OK         94  68  80  62 /  30  80  40  10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ007-008-013.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...06

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion