Long Boat Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

506
FXUS62 KTBW 200420
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1220 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Surface high pressure along the eastern seaboard and Gulf of
Mexico will continue to create mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
and dry very warm conditions to west central and southwest
Florida through the weekend. 00Z TBW sounding had PCPW value of
only 1.06 inches indicating dry airmass over the forecast area.
High temperatures each day will be around 90 to the lower 90s.
Little change to the overall dynamics early next week as the area of
high pressure/dry air will retreat away from the area with boundary
layer flow shifting the east allowing deep layer moisture to return
to the region. Increasing chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms through mid week...with highest pops south in region
of best available deep layer moisture.
Another area of high pressure and drier air will sink south over
west central Florida late in the week suppressing pops. Again,
highest pops will be over southwest Florida in region of best
available deep layer moisture. Temperatures will run near to a few
degrees above climatic normals each day through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will persist through the
remainder of the night and Saturday morning. FEW-SCT 030-040 will
develop tomorrow afternoon with daytime heating...otherwise, dry
conditions and VFR conditions are expected to continue.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Primarily east to northeast winds expected through early next
week remaining below cautionary levels each day. The offshore flow
will keep seas generally to 2 feet or less each day...locally 3
feet over the far outer waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1218 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient low level
moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values
above critical levels each day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  75  93  76 /  10   0  10  10
FMY  92  74  92  75 /  10   0  20  20
GIF  93  72  92  74 /  10   0  10   0
SRQ  92  72  92  74 /  10  10  10  10
BKV  92  68  92  70 /  10   0  10   0
SPG  90  75  90  76 /   0  10  10  10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 3
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn

NWS tbw Office Area Forecast Discussion