Longbridge, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

267
FXUS64 KLCH 181124
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
624 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cloud cover has been slow to develop today allowing temps to hit
  the low 90s by noon. Dry dewpoints should keep HIs in the mid
  90s. Scattered showers/storms still possible this afternoon.
- High temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the
  forecast period.
- Moisture increases into the late weekend, however, rain chances
  likely don`t return until the start of next work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Strong and widespread convection today led to multiple severe
thunderstorm warnings, along with several damage reports from the
storms. Models underestimated the volatility of the atmosphere the
previous two days as weakness aloft, along with daytime heating,
led to a robust atmosphere. The 18Z sounding this afternoon showed
CAPE values between 1800 and 2500 J/kg. While there was no
impactful wind shear, 3-6 km lapse rates were over 6 degrees/km.
Storms that were able to tap into that energy had explosive
growth.
Thursday will have a similar setup, with clear skies providing
ample energy for afternoon convection to once again create a
conditional damaging wind threat. There will be a more limiting
factors for Thursday compared to today, mainly a lack of moisture
in the low levels, which will limit convection. PWATs will drop
down to 1.5 inches, near our daily average but the main limiting
factor will be a building ridge as high pressure builds along the
Gulf coast. Friday will have a similar setup but more dry air and
a stronger ridge. We will end the work week and head into the
weekend on the dry side, with PoPs close to zero as dry air stays
in place.
High temperatures will continue to stay in the mid to low 90s,
with dew points in the 70s, leading to hot and humid conditions.
Overnight lows won`t bring too much relief as our lows will stay
near 70.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
For the rest of the weekend and going into the start of next week,
a surface high will limit PoPs and keep temperatures in the 90s.
By midweek, we will start to see a change in our pattern as the
high moves to the east and brings more moisture into the region.
Typical afternoon showers and thunderstorms should be expected on
Tuesday and Wednesday.
Near the end of the forecast, a strong low will be moving across
the central plains, with some of the global models showing an
associated front moving across the region. There is still
significant disagreement between different models and runs, but it
is a feature that will be worth watching.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Other than areas of patchy fog, VFR conditions ongoing this
morning. Low chances of showers and storms are once again possible
this afternoon into the evening hours. Confidence in fog overnight
into tomorrow morning is low, however not out of the realm of
possibility.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Winds and waves will remain calm, with winds from the east around
10 knots and waves below 3 feet through the weekend. Winds and
waves will start to increase next week as the pressure gradient
increases.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Widespread rainfall today will help limit fire weather concerns
for the rest of the week. Going into the weekend, conditions will
be dry, with minimum RH values between 35 and 55%. Moisture
recovery will be near 100%; that, along with low winds, will keep
fire weather concerns low.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  67  93  67 /  20  20  10   0
LCH  91  70  91  71 /  20  20  10   0
LFT  91  69  91  70 /  20   0  10   0
BPT  91  70  91  71 /  20  10  10   0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...87

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion