Lovelock, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

911
FXUS65 KREV 201833
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1133 AM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Showers and isolated thunderstorms this weekend mainly for
  northeast CA, northwest NV, and Mono, Mineral and southern Lyon
  counties.
* Near average temperatures are expected through much of the
  upcoming week.
* Another weather system may bring shower and thunderstorm
  chances again by midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Lingering moisture and instability, along with weak upper
disturbances will keep isolated shower and thunderstorm chances
going this weekend. For this afternoon, the most favored area for
storms (15-25% chance) is northeast CA/northwest NV, with a
secondary risk for storms (10-20% chance) in Mono County and
western NV south of US-50 from eastern Douglas County eastward to
Mineral/southern Churchill counties. For Sunday afternoon,
similar areas are again targeted for showers/storms, but the
greater storm chances shift to Mono-Mineral-southern Lyon
counties. Storms that develop will be capable of producing brief
heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail.
Elsewhere across western NV and eastern CA, precipitation chances
this weekend are 10% or less.
For the early part of next week, a high pressure ridge rebuilding
over northern CA/NV brings drier conditions and near average
temperatures with highs in the lower-mid 80s for lower elevations
and 70s near the Sierra.
Meanwhile, another upper low off the southern CA/northern Mexico
coast is projected to pull in more moisture as we get to midweek.
The main forecast challenge is the track of this low with varied
outcomes showing up in medium range guidance. The wetter scenario
brings this low and its deeper moisture far enough north into the
Sierra/western NV to produce increased shower/t-storm chances
across much of the region from Wednesday-Thursday, especially
from I-80 southward (along with 5-10 degrees of cooling). Other
scenarios hold this low farther south with precip chances only
scraping southern Mono-Mineral counties, while the high pressure
ridge holds its place to keep dry and warm conditions across the
remainder of the region. As was the case with the recent rain
event, confidence remains on the low side at this time until the
offshore weather features and extent of deeper moisture are
better resolved. The current forecast from blended guidance favors
the Tuesday night-Wednesday evening time frame for best overall
precip chances. These chances range from 10-20% for northeast CA
and northwest NV (except less than 10% near the OR border) to
20-40% across the remainder of eastern CA-western NV, peaking over
the eastern Sierra in Alpine/Mono counties. Lesser shower/storm
chances linger into Thursday, mainly south of US-50.
For late next week into the final weekend of September, more
agreement returns for dry weather across the region with continued
near-average temperatures. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
* For KMMH this weekend: A few showers may bring brief reductions
  in ceilings or terrain obscuration this afternoon mainly from
  21-02Z, but rain chances have decreased to less than 15%. For
  Sunday, the shower/storm chances increase to near 25% between
  21-02Z, which may bring brief heavy rain with MVFR ceilings and
  wind gusts to 30 kt.
* Elsewhere at the main terminals this weekend: VFR conditions
  with light winds (gusts below 20 kt) prevail. Only exception is
  patchy fog around KTRK between 10-16Z Sunday morning with
  periods of MVFR to LIFR conditions. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$

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