Lower Waterford, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

256
FXUS61 KBTV 250056
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
856 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of rain showers are anticipated tonight into Thursday
across northern New York and all of Vermont. Rainfall amounts will
vary from a quarter of an inch to localized amounts over one inch
possible. In addition, localized southeast gap winds of 25 to 35 mph
will be possible on Thursday along the Green Mountain Spine.
Temperatures will only be in the 60s on Thursday, but more warmer
and drier weather returns again for the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 732 PM EDT Wednesday...Precipitation chances were refined
since coverage and duration of showers have increased rather
than trending downward; the mid level support is sufficient to
keep showers ongoing through the evening and for locations
farther northward. Otherwise, the forecast is right on track and
verifying quite well.
Previous Discussion...The near term fcst
focus is timing of several rounds of rain showers acrs our cwa
tonight through Thurs. Water vapor shows our first embedded
short wave and pocket of enhanced mid lvl moisture over
eastern/central NY, which should help to expand the areal
coverage of showers acrs our cwa this evening from south to
north. Did note a few lightning strikes over the central
Catskills, which based on weak progged elevated instability
parameters could impact our dacks/southern Greens tonight. Much
less areal coverage of fog anticipated tonight, as southeast low
level jet of 20 to 30 knots will be increasing aft 00z.
However, did note much lighter bl winds acrs the SLV and parts
of the CT River Valley, so have placed patchy fog in these
areas. Temps with clouds/precip hold in the mid 50s to lower/mid
60s with some humidity.
For Thursday, have noted several favorable parameters for efficient
rain producing showers with embedded rumbles acrs our fa. These
parameters include deep moisture with pw values 1.50 to 1.75", warm
cloud depths approaching 11,000 feet, synoptic scale lift provided
by nose of 70 to 100 knot jet, and finally a band of moderately
strong 700mb fgen lifting from south to north. This supports a band
of rain showers lifting from south to north acrs our cwa on Thurs
with embedded heavier downpours likely. Better instability develops
ahead of secondary s/w energy in the aftn, so additional showers
with more sfc based convection is possible, but CAPE values are
weak, so thunderstorm potential wl be limited. Did note an
increasing 925mb to 850mb jet of 25 to 35 knots per sounding
data, but inversion height is below mtn ridges, so expect
greatest gust potential in the gaps along the Green Mtn Spine.
Localized gusts 25 to 35 mph possible in gaps, much lighter away
from favorable terrain features. A little downslope shadowing
possible, but given synoptic scale lift/moisture impacts should
be limited. Did trend toward the higher qpf with amounts 0.50 to
1.0", with some localized higher amounts in any convective
elements, slightly less over parts of northern NY. Much like a
winter system, did lower temps east of the Greens into the l/m
60s with upper 60s/near 70F CPV and lower 70s SLV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 202 PM EDT Wednesday...Mid/upper lvl trof axis moves acrs our
cwa, along with embedded s/w energy as deeper moisture is shifting
eastward. Expecting additional showers on Thurs evening, with precip
becoming more trrn focused aft 06z Friday. Have continued with
likely/cat pops for Thurs evening with chc pops on Friday. Cold air
advection behind this system is very marginal, so not anticipating
much temp drop. As weak sfc high pres builds into our cwa late
Friday into Friday night, expect decreasing chances for pops with
some clearing skies. Areas of fog are likely on Friday night acrs
most of our cwa, given recent rainfall and lighter winds. Lows Thurs
night fall back into the mid 50s to lower 60s with highs back into
the 70s on Friday. However, cooler temps are possible on Friday if
more clouds/precip linger, similar to today. Lows drop back into the
mid 40s to mid 50s for Friday night, with areas of fog likely.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 202 PM EDT Wednesday...Another stretch of seasonably warm and
dry weather is expected this weekend into next week as surface high
pressure and upper level ridging look to build into the region.
Compared to the previous forecast, the latest guidance keeps our
region even drier this weekend, particularly Sunday, with one system
to our south and low pressure well to our north. The most recent NBM
shows a 10 percent or less of any precipitation across the region at
this time. Daytime highs will be on the warmer side for this
weekend, with temperatures in the 70s to near 80, trending more
seasonable through the week with highs in the 60s Tuesday and
Wednesday as a cooler air mass builds in. Overnight lows will also
trend cooler through the week, from 40s and 50s over the weekend to
30s and 40s by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Mainly VFR/MVFR conditions are ongoing,
but the trend is expected to be downward overnight with most
locations becoming MVFR/IFR 06-12Z. Shower chances increase
tomorrow with continued support for efficient rain processes
likely keeping most locations a mix of IFR/MVFR. Winds aloft
increase markedly out of the southeast after 15z Thursday, so
LLWS was introduced as a warm front sweeps northward while
surface flow remains generally light. RUT could see some gusty
winds to around 20kts, however, since it responds to
southeastward flow readily. By 21z, the low level jet will have
progressed northward ending the threat of LLWS, but not MVFR/IFR
CIGs.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Boyd

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion