Lubbock, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

168
FXUS64 KLUB 051706
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1206 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- Clouds, cooler temperatures, and some shower/thunderstorm
   chances this weekend.
- A return to warmer and drier weather next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Satellite imagery showing quite well the overall pattern over North
America today with a broad upper cyclone centered over Ontario and
dominating the central half of Canada and the adjacent upper Plains
and Great Lakes region of the CONUS. Farther to the south moist mid
to upper flow has crested over a southward-retreating ridge over
Mexico. The interaction of a fast upper jet rotating around the
southwestern flank of the northern cyclone and the subtropical flow
cresting the ridge across New Mexico and West Texas has resulted in
a broad area of generally light precipitation across the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles eastward along the Oklahoma/Kansas state line.
An extension southward of this precipitation across the forecast
area is expected this afternoon into the evening as top-down
moistening over the southern High Plains continues. Cloud cover will
and a backdoor cold front will keep temperatures limited for all but
the southeastern part of the forecast area this afternoon, with
surface-based instability limited as well. However, some pockets of
elevated instability could be sufficient for a few heavier showers
and thunderstorms to develop.
The northern jet streak will move off to the east Saturday leaving
only the weaker southern branch near the forecast area, and even
that development will see the said southern, subtropical branch sag
southward with time. This will see precip chances shift to the south
as well. At this time only the southwestern corner of the forecast
area seems to have enough of a chance of seeing a shower or
thunderstorm to mention in the forecast. However, mid and upper
level cloud cover will remain fairly abundant and should keep upside
potential to temperatures limited mainly in a range from 75-80
degrees in the modest post-frontal air mass.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
As early as Saturday night the Mexican ridge will begin to build
northward again as the subtropical jet and associated cyclonic
curvature move off quickly to the southeast. Some low level moisture
advection up the Pecos River valley into eastern New Mexico late in
the day Saturday could set up some diurnally-driven convection in
those areas. West to northwest flow aloft Saturday night into early
Sunday could see some of those storms move eastward into the
forecast area with a repeat possible Sunday afternoon and night. The
setup isn`t a great one, but the potential is high enough to justify
chance PoPs, particularly for western zones.
Precip chances will effectively come to an end as early as Monday as
more amplification of the ridge is progged to occur and as said
ridge edges eastward with time. This will remove mentionable PoPs
and result in a reversion to above-normal temperatures through next
week. Late in the period will see a trough develop over the western
CONUS that will attempt to activate convection across New Mexico in
the Wednesday/Thursday time frame, but at this time it looks like
the ridge will hold over the southern High Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Overcast skies will persist through this evening, however all sites
should remain VFR. MVFR CIGs are possible at KPVW and KLBB after
midnight through Saturday morning. Light WNW winds will shift NE and
remain as such through the end of the TAF period.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion