Luther, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

832
FXUS65 KBYZ 010914
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
314 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm, above normal temperatures through Thursday.
- Pattern change to cooler and wetter arrives by Friday, lasting
  into early next week.
- Pattern change will bring snow to the mountains, and possibly
  the foothills, this weekend into early next week. Stay tuned.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...
Over the mountains and east of Billings, showers will continue to
decrease through the morning hours and end by early afternoon. The
rest of today into the first half of Thursday will remain warm,
with highs around 10 degrees above normal, and mostly dry. Then,
as a Pacific trough moves inland, the chance for precipitation
will increase over the Absaroka/Beartooth mountains (20-40%
chance) Thursday afternoon and spread across the western half of
the region (30-50% chance) by Friday morning.
Late Friday into early next week will then see an increased chance
of precipitation and cooling temperatures as the trough moves
east. At this time, models suggest some energy splitting off from
the trough late Saturday into Monday and combining with energy
dropping out of Canada to set up an upper low over the Pacific
coast. There is still a lot of uncertainty in exactly how that
will play out, which will influence how cool temperatures become,
how low snow levels will fall, how much total precip is possible,
and whether precip will be mostly continuous or spilt into
distinct rounds for late Saturday into early next week.
At this time, for Friday through Monday morning, there is a
40-70% chance (lowest over the northeast) of at least 0.25" of
precip over the plains and a 60-80% chance of at least 0.50" over
the mountains and foothills, including SWE.
How much snow may fall over the mountains, and if and how much may
fall over the foothills, greatly depends on the snow levels. To
explain further, over the Absaroka/Beartooth mountains Friday,
the low end (25th percentile) is at 10.7 kft and the high end
(75th percentile) at 11.3 kft. By Saturday, the uncertainty
increases, with the low end at 8.2 kft and the high end at 10 kft.
Sunday is similarly uncertain, with the low end at 5.6 kft (the
approximate elevation of Red Lodge) and the high end at 7 kft. So,
currently, there is a 20-50% chance of at least a light dusting
of snow over the foothills and a 60% chance of at least 6 inches
of snow above 8 kft Friday through early Monday. Stay up to date
with the forecast, especially if you plan to recreate in the
mountains and foothills this weekend, as the forecast is likely to
change as the pattern becomes more certain.
Highs will be generally in the 70s to near 80 today and Thursday
before decreasing into the weekend. Currently, Sunday is expected
to be the coldest day, with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. By
early next week, highs are expected in the 50s and 60s. Sunday
night and Monday night, there is a moderate to high chance of
lows near or below freezing over the foothills and common cold
spots in river valleys. Archer
.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move
northeast through the early morning hours. Gusty winds 25-35 kts
will be common with any shower/thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR
conditions can be expected through the period. TS/Archer
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 051/079 051/070 049/059 040/052 035/053 034/061
    1/U 00/U    22/W    56/T    54/W    22/W    11/U
LVM 072 043/074 043/066 039/056 031/048 026/052 027/060
    1/B 03/T    56/T    65/W    64/W    22/W    11/U
HDN 079 046/082 048/073 047/060 038/053 032/055 031/062
    2/W 00/U    21/B    66/T    63/W    31/B    11/U
MLS 079 049/082 053/077 050/064 040/056 033/057 033/063
    2/W 00/U    10/B    34/T    42/W    21/B    10/U
4BQ 077 050/082 051/077 050/062 040/054 035/052 033/060
    2/W 00/U    00/B    35/T    62/W    32/W    10/U
BHK 079 049/083 049/080 047/065 038/056 030/057 032/063
    2/T 00/U    00/B    23/T    51/B    21/B    10/U
SHR 077 044/082 046/076 043/058 033/052 029/052 029/060
    1/U 00/U    01/B    58/T    75/W    42/W    21/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings

NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion