Madrid, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

455
FXUS63 KLBF 061936
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
236 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures begin to warm tomorrow, bringing temperatures
  slightly above seasonal averages this week.
- Warm temperatures, low humidity, and gusty winds may cause
  elevated fire weather concerns west of Highway 83 early this
  week.
- Appreciable precipitation chances return to the area mid
  week, with near daily precipitation chances Wednesday through
  Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
High pressure continues to dominate the short term forecast. Height
rises are expected to begin tonight, ushering in warmer temperatures
slightly more quickly than previously expected. Tonight, though
clear skies and light surface winds will allow for strong
radiational cooling, higher dewpoints will contribute to slightly
warmer overnight lows. Expecting lows to remain in the 40s
overnight, with a few locations in northwest Nebraska reaching into
the upper 30s.
With the quicker arrival of the upper level ridge, highs on Sunday
have trended slightly warmer, now bringing highs into the upper 70s
to mid 80s west of Highway 83, with mid to upper 70s highs east of
Highway 83. Throughout the day, the upper level ridge and high
pressure will continue to limit any precipitation concern. However,
by Sunday evening, a low pressure system is expected to break off of
the front range, introducing a possibility of showers and
thunderstorms across southwest Nebraska late evening and
overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
By Monday, the northern jet stream is expected to be in a mostly
ridging pattern across the region. The southern jet, on the other
hand, is expected to bring a trough across the West Coast, slight
ridging over the Front Range, and a shortwave to the east of the
ridge axis. The shortwave is expected to deepen the low pressure
system, bringing better precipitation chances across eastern
Nebraska. However, the western extent of this system may clip
portions of north central Nebraska, bringing a slight chance
(generally less than 25 percent) of showers and thunderstorms
through the day on Monday.
As with Sunday, temperatures continue to trend upward this week,
bringing slightly above average temperatures to the region. For
early September, we are typically in the low 80s for highs. However,
with temperatures trending upward, we are now expecting highs in the
mid to upper 80s, especially for areas along and west of Highway 83
Monday and Tuesday. In addition to the warmer temperatures,
afternoon relative humidity values drop into the 20 to 30 percent
range west of Highway 83. Winds gusts on Monday approach 20 mph out
of the north, with gusts around 20 mph out of the southeast on
Tuesday. Due to this combination of higher temperatures, gusty
winds, and low humidity, elevated fire weather conditions are
possible Monday and Tuesday for areas west of Highway 83.
By mid week, the trough in the southern jet is expected to be over
the Four Corners region, introducing divergence aloft across the
region. The northern jet is expected to remain in a ridge, allowing
for temperatures to remain on the slightly warmer side,  with highs
expected to remain in the 80s. With the upper level support, a
series of low pressure systems and fronts brings a near daily chance
for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Ensemble
guidance remains in agreement, with the GEFS and European ensembles
highlighting a 30 to 50 percent chance for wetting precipitation
across the region. Will continue to monitor forecast trends, as some
guidance points to higher PWATs and potential for heavy rainfall by
late week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR conditions will continue to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska this afternoon and overnight. Skies remain mostly
clear this afternoon, with high pressure over the region. Winds are
expected to remain light throughout the TAF period, becoming
southerly overnight into the morning hours. By late morning, high
clouds begin to track into the region, however, no impacts are
expected to ceilings.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion