Maeser, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

628
FXUS65 KGJT 232211
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
411 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer and drier conditions move in for the next couple of
  days before moisture increases from south to north throughout
  the weekend.
- A prolonged period of wet weather is possible this weekend
  through early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 403 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A low pressure system currently centered over northeast
Colorado has been slow to move out today. Instead of tracking
east with the center of the low, a ridge building in over Idaho
and western Wyoming resulted in an easterly propagation of the
back half of the low over northwest Colorado. Tonight the
trough overhead will finally push east giving way to high
pressure building across the Intermountain West. Light rain and
snow showers will continue through the evening until then.
High pressure will bring warmer and drier conditions to the
region tomorrow with mostly sunny skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 403 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A weak blocking ridge sets up over the Rockies Thursday, with
much of the CONUS cutoff from the polar jet rippling across the
Canadian Border. This is expected to keep weather conditions
somewhat stagnant for a few days as models grapple with seasonal
shift. A weak cutoff low over SOCAL pushes against the ridge to
no avail. Temperatures warm up near seasonal normals beneath
the ridge, while a few clouds begin to emerge from the south
Friday ahead of the drifting low. PWAT values do come up Friday,
but forcing looks like it might not materialize. I think an
isolated shower for southeast Utah and southwest Colorado is
reasonable on the terrain Friday afternoon. Saturday and Sunday
look more convincing, as the eastern Pacific trough kicks the,
now open wave, across the Four Corners. This will send
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the CWA through the
weekend. Ensemble PWAT values climb near 190 percent of normal
late Saturday and early Sunday. This is worth keeping an eye on,
given historical September trends for heavier rain around the
CWA. Temperatures beneath the cloud cover Sunday are expected to
trend below average, especially around showers and storms.
Monday and Tuesday remain active by deterministic model outputs.
A PACNW system is expected to send additional moisture our way
via strong southwesterly flow. Given this solution follows a
pattern shift, I would expect to see some changes in the coming
model runs. This would keep temperatures mild with additional
cloud cover and precipitation to start the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Low clouds...precipitation and fog are impacting TAF sites over
portions of western Colorado including KHDN...KASE and KGUC
where MVFR and occasional IFR conditions have been recorded.
This will continue through the morning and with impacts and KEGE
as the clouds slowly lift and thunderstorms become a threat
through the late afternoon hours. Gusty outflow winds will be
the main concern as drier air mixes into the region. Skies will
clear and conditions generally improve in most areas. There will
be a chance of low clouds and fog to form in some of the river
valleys overnight but confidence too low to place in TAFs attm.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion