Manasota, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

936
FXUS62 KTBW 121850
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
250 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Boundary remains across south Florida with high pressure over the
eastern U.S. setting up a northeast to north low level flow across
the region. This flow is bringing drier air south into the area
with the deepest moisture across south Florida close to the
boundary. There remains enough moisture from around the I-4
corridor southward for scattered to numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening, with
convection moving offshore later this evening and overnight. The
northeast to north flow will continue into early next week as the
surface high remains over the eastern U.S. and a weak surface low
drifts north off the southeast U.S. coast. This will help push the
boundary further south with the drier air also moving further
south. It still looks like there will be enough moisture for a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, but overall
rain chances look to only be about 20 to 30 percent for Saturday
through Tuesday. By the middle of next week deeper moisture will
begin to slowly spread back north with rain chances gradually
increasing once again.
Thanks to the drier air moving south we`ll see some dew points
in the 60s across much of our area over the weekend and into
early next week. This will allow morning lows to dip into the 60s
for a few mornings, especially across the Nature Coast south into
the central inland areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and early evening which could cause some MVFR/local IFR
conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail with
northeast to north winds at 5 to 10 knots through the TAF forecast
period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible over
mainly the central and southern waters as a front remains
stalled across south Florida. Winds will increase to exercise
caution criteria across the northern and central waters tonight
and again Saturday night, otherwise they are expected to remain
10 to 15 knots out of the northeast to north winds with seas up
to 3 feet. Over the weekend the boundary will drift further south
as high pressure builds in from the north with some drier
conditions expected, but isolated to scattered mainly late
afternoon and early nighttime showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
A stalled front across south Florida will continue to support
scattered showers and thunderstorms south of Interstate 4 this
afternoon and evening, while some drier air spreading south will
limit overall coverage across the Nature Coast. The boundary will
drift further south over the weekend with the north to northeast flow
at speeds less than 15 mph continuing to bring drier air further
south. Even with the drier air relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  90  73  89 /  20  20  10  30
FMY  73  88  72  89 /  40  50  40  30
GIF  72  90  71  89 /  20  20  10  30
SRQ  72  88  71  89 /  30  30  20  30
BKV  67  88  67  89 /  10  10  10  30
SPG  73  87  73  86 /  20  20  20  30
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
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