Manassas Park, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

979
FXUS61 KLWX 010739
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
339 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure over eastern Canada will wedge south into the
region through Friday bringing lower humidity and cooler
temperatures. The wedging high will gradually push off the New
England coast leading to moderating temperatures this weekend. Next
chance for rain arrives with a cold front early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over Quebec will gradually build southward over
the next few days settling over NJ by Fri morning. This will
support fair weather conditions and NNE winds at 10 kt or less.
Highs today will only reach around 70 and lows tonight will fall
in the 40s west of I-95 and even some mid 30s in the most
sheltered valleys.
The sfc wind flow will turn more onshore Thu into Fri leading to
a scattered stratocumulus deck. Lows Fri morning will be similar
to Thu despite more clouds around.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The sfc high will drop further down the Mid-Atlantic coast with
light winds and a daytime stratocu clouds. Continued cooler than
normal, especially at night due to good radiational cooling
conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Moderating temperatures and dry conditions are expected for the
upcoming weekend as surface high pressure remains anchored near or
just off the New England/Mid-Atlantic coast. With high pressure
nearby expect a continuation of mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
for both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will warm back into the
mid to upper 70s Saturday with low 80s expected for most locations
outside the mountains Sunday. Humidity will gradually increase as
well with dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s Sunday afternoon.
This is largely due in part to south to southwesterly return flow
around the departing surface high.
High pressure continues to move further off the coast Monday with a
cold front set to approach from the west Tuesday into midweek. The
front is in response to the flattening ridge aloft and a more
transient zonal flow pattern across the region. Current 12z/00z
ensembles show a flattening ridge/weak troughing into the east and
more substantial ridging in the west. The overall flow pattern looks
to remain flat through the end of next week with a series of embedded
shortwave troughs pushing from west to east across the
CONUS. With that said, long range guidance suggest a frontal
passage sometime during the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe.
Another wedging high looks to build in behind the front for the
back half of the workweek. Temperatures look to remain at or
above average through the extended period. With warmer
temperatures returning, no frost/freeze concerns are expected
during the overnight hours this weekend into much of the
upcoming workweek. Some patchy morning river/valley fog can be
expected, especially later in the weekend into early next week
as moisture gradually increases across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
N to NE winds around 10 kt today, diminishing tonight through
Thu. P6SM SKC today and tonight, then scattered stratocumulus
Thu and Fri.
No significant weather is expected to impact aviation operations
through Monday with strong high pressure nearby. Next chance of sub-
VFR comes with a cold front Tuesday into Wednesday next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will peak around 12Z today, then gradually diminish
through Thu. However, SCA conditions will likely persist into
Fri morning.
No marine hazards are expected through early next week. Sub-SCA
level winds will remain out of the south Saturday before turning
south to southeasterly Monday into Tuesday next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
North to northeast winds are forecast to remain elevated through
tonight as strong high pressure builds in from the north. This will
keep tidal anomalies in check before snapback occurs later this week.
The threat for widespread minor coastal flooding, and possible
moderate coastal flooding at Annapolis could occur during multiple
high tide cycles starting late tonight and continuing through
Friday. Have issued a Coastal Flood Watch to account for this threat
during the high tide cycle tonight. Further extension of the watch
will be needed for the upcoming high tide cycles Thursday and Friday
with snapback likely to occur. This is due largely in part to strong
northeasterly winds tonight quickly turning back to the east
and southeast late Thursday into Friday.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning
     for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>533-538>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ534-537-
     543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-
     536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...LFR/EST
MARINE...LFR/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EST

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion