Manchester, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

678
FXUS61 KBUF 161811
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
211 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An area of high pressure will maintain fair weather through
Thursday. A weak cold front will drop across our region Thursday
night and early Friday, though any shower activity upon the front
will remain sparse. More noticeable will be the change in
temperatures with highs Friday around 10 degrees cooler than
Thursday with a brisk northerly wind.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure over southern Quebec will gradually slide
towards Atlantic Canada tonight and tomorrow...allowing a coastal
low just south of Delmarva to ever so slowly edge northward and
inland. This low will send an increase in moisture (mid and high
level clouds) over our region tomorrow, with clouds thickest across
southern and eastern areas.
Otherwise fair weather continues with valley fog tonight, as well as
patches of fog across the southeast Lake Ontario region...and Saint
Lawrence Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weak coastal low that brings the potential for a few showers across
areas to our southeast, pulls east Wednesday night taking associated
cloud cover with it as well with skies clearing from west to east.
This will allow a weak area of high pressure to build back in across
the area maintaining dry weather and above average temperatures
through Thursday.
A weak moisture-starved cold front will cross the area Thursday
night. This continues to look as though it may be able to squeeze
out a few widely scattered showers east of Lake Ontario, however a
bit more notable will be the shot of more seasonable air that will
be delivered in the wake of the frontal passage, bringing
temperatures back more to near normal. Otherwise, another large area
of Canadian surface high pressure will build southeast out of
western Ontario Province into southwestern Quebec through Friday
night bringing continued dry weather with near normal temperatures
expected for the finish of the work week, although expect a breezy
northerly wind on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aforementioned surface high pressure now located over southwestern
Quebec to open the period will continue its` journey southeast,
making it into New England Saturday night, before slowing down as it
slides off the New England coast on Sunday. This feature will keep
dry weather in place through most, if not all of the upcoming
weekend. Aforementioned surface high pressure will be reluctant to
give up its` hold on the area as it slowly drifts east further off
the New England coast, especially across eastern NY and New England.
In addition, a western Atlantic ridge aloft extending back northwest
over the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast will help to deflect
weak waves of low pressure approaching from the western Great Lakes
to our northwest. As ridging gradually nudges east, these weak
systems passing by to our west will keep trying to make inroads a
bit further east, possibly bringing a few showers into the region,
especially across western areas for the first part of the new work
week. Confidence on any rainfall getting in here remains low, and by
no means is any of this expected to be impactful at this point. NBM
has Chc PoPs for the entire area by Tuesday, which looks reasonable
for now. Summer-like temperatures return for Sunday through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions with a gentle wind are found
and these conditions will prevail through much of the TAF cycle,
with the exception of overnight fog.
This fog will again fill the valleys of the Southern Tier, and
patches of fog southeast and east of Lake Ontario remain possible.
For KJHW, will place VCFG in the TAF tonight as a developing
nocturnal flow just a few hundred feet above the ground may mix
enough dry air to prevent the valley fog from expanding up and over
the KJHW airfield.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Overnight valley fog
across the western Southern Tier will be possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Mainly light winds and low wave action expected through at least
Thursday with high pressure in control.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...JM/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion