Mansura, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

471
FXUS64 KLCH 021758
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1258 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A slight increase in moisture to go along with a developing
  upper level disturbance will bring a periodic low end chances
  for rain today into this weekend.
- Moisture increases further by Sunday as the upper level
  disturbance moves overhead, allowing rain chances to ramp up
  a bit Sunday into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Showers and storms are beginning to blossom on radar this
afternoon thanks to an increase in moisture and falling heights
aloft in conjunction with our run of the mill diurnal process.
Per usual, this activity is expected to decrease after sunset,
with a quiet, but more humid/warm night in store.
Conditions on the weekend will be more of the same, however rain
chances will be limited more to our southern and eastern zones in
response to an upper weakness that is taking shape over the
remnants of a frontal boundary near the FL peninsula. It is worth
noting that NHC is monitoring this area, with a 10 percent chance
of development given through the next 2 and 7 days. Regardless of
development, the central to eastern Gulf Coast will see showers
from this.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
The pattern of the long term will start off reminding us of
summer, with daily isolated to scattered showers and storms. This
again will mostly be expected for the southern half of the inland
zones in response to the aforementioned area of weakness from the
short term. By Sunday, it is expected to close off and drift
westward overhead before opening up again as a trough out of the
NW begins to push eastward through the workweek. Additionally,
heights will rise locally, with a weak upper ridge beginning to
form in the early to midweek period. This is worth keeping an eye
on, as this could possibly block a weak front that is expected to
cut across the CONUS in that time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Shower activity is beginning to blossom this afternoon, with this
trend continuing through the rest of the daytime hours. After
sunset, this will wane. Quiet conditions likely tonight with an
increase in cloud cover and winds out of the ENE to east.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Ridging from the Mid-Atlantic area will build toward the Gulf
Coast, allowing winds and seas to steadily strengthen. Winds/seas
will build through Friday and remain elevated through the weekend,
and a small craft advisory has been issued for the outer gulf
marine zones. In addition, shower activity will increase tomorrow
into the weekend with an upper level disturbance developing over
the northern Gulf.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Surface winds will remain light to moderate out of the ENE today and
Friday with occasional higher gusts. Moisture will remain near
normal through the end of the week, before increasing significantly
over the weekend. Some isolated to scattered convection will be
possibly today through Sat. A disturbance offshore along with the
significant increase in moisture will allow for scattered to
numerous showers and storms by Sunday into early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  69  88  67  88 /  20  10   0  10
LFT  69  86  67  86 /  10  20   0  20
BPT  70  88  68  87 /  20  20  10  10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for
     GMZ470-472-475.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion