Manzanola, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

337
FXUS65 KPUB 131111
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
511 AM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and storms will move across the area today, with some
  strong to severe possible.
- Patchy frost possible in lower portions of the San Luis Valley Saturday
  Night, with overnight lows just above freezing.
- Wet conditions will give way to a drying trend on Sunday, with
  cooler temperatures for the region.
- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected for
  Monday and Tuesday, with another cool down and more chances
  for showers and thunderstorms arriving mid-week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Today and Tonight...
An upper-level trough will move into our region today, bringing a
somewhat cooler and overall active weather day to southeast
Colorado. Showers and storms will move beneath the trough axis,
starting over our western mountains and moving into the San Luis
Valley by late morning. Models do have close to 40-50 knots of bulk
shear over the valley around the time storms will be passing
through. While instability will be lacking so early in the day,
can`t rule out the possibility of a localized stronger storm or two,
due to a combination of synoptic shear and localized stretching from
elevation changes.
Storms move further east onto the plains in the afternoon to evening
timeframe. More available moisture will provide around 1000-1300
J/kg of CAPE, depending on which model you look at, with 30+ knots
of shear available thanks to the passing trough. Surface winds will
be easterly over I-25, and southerly over our eastern counties, good
for Gulf moisture advection and upsloping support. As such, storms
are expected to intensify as the axis of synoptic lift moves across
the rest of our CWA, with some storms becoming strong to severe.
Once off of the mountains, storms will generally move in a
fragmented line towards the northeast, with the main impacts being
strong outflow winds and hail, along with localized heavy rainfall.
Storms should be moving fast enough to decrease flash flooding
concerns somewhat, though heavier rain rates may still inundate
flood-prone areas.
Precipitation will either exit our forecast area or dissipate
overnight, leaving generally cool temperatures behind. Lows into
Sunday morning will see 40s-50s over the eastern plain, a noticeable
drop from the previous night. The high valleys should be seeing mid-
30s, and based on guidance some areas may just narrowly avoid
hitting the freezing mark. Some patchy frost may be possible,
particularly over the southwest portions of the San Luis Valley,
where overnight low temperatures will be coldest.
Sunday...
Dry westerly flow sets up overhead behind the retreating trough, as
we spend a brief time in between systems. Little to no precipitation
is expected across our CWA on Sunday, with temperatures remaining
consistent with Saturday. Highs will be in the 70s to low-80s over
the plains, while the valleys remain cool in the 60s to low-70s.
Skies will mostly clear out, with surface winds downsloping off of
the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Sunday Night and Monday..
Overnight lows from Sunday night into Monday morning look to once
again be near freezing over the San luis Valley, where a few hours
of patchy frost may be possible. Our flow aloft transitions from
zonal Monday morning to southwesterly by the end of the day, as our
next Low begins to take shape over the northern Rockies. This will
mean a bit of a warmup from Sunday`s temperatures as we head into
Monday, with daytime highs returning to slightly above normal. Highs
in the 70s are expected over mountain valleys, with 80s over much of
the plains, and a few low 90s over the Lower Arkansas River Valley.
Showers and thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. Winds will be
mainly light and terrain driven, and critical fire weather
conditions are not expected.
Tuesday Onwards..
Models are beginning to show more alignment with the mid-week
system, though there is still a good deal of uncertainty on timing
with the Low itself. Newest model runs do show that we stay
warm/above normal for Tuesday as southwest flow ahead of the system
persists. Shortwaves embedded in the approaching trough also look to
combine with enough moisture to bring showers and thunderstorms back
to the forecast by Tuesday afternoon, though coverage looks to be
fairly isolated and mainly tied to the mountains. The cold front
looks to arrive somewhere in the late Tuesday or Wednesday timeframe
as the low passes to our north, cooling us back down to below normal
temperatures for both Wednesday and Thursday. Showers and
thunderstorms look to be possible again on Wednesday, decreasing in
coverage and intensity by Thursday as the low scoots east into the
northern plains. Clearing conditions and northwest flow behind the
system could lead to a chilly morning on Thursday. Ridging looks to
build in for Friday and Saturday, along with the potential for more
near normal highs.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
VFR conditions are expected at KCOS and KPUB this morning, with IFR
ceilings through around 14Z at KALS. Showers and thunderstorms have
already begun to form up over western Colorado, and are expected to
continue to drift eastward and over our TAF sites throughout the
late morning and early evening hours. Gusty and erratic thunderstorm
outflow winds, small hail, and brief reductions in ceilings and
visibilities in heavy rain will all be possible in stronger storms
today. Showers look to linger into the evening hours at KALS, and
could potentially linger at KCOS as well, though the confidence in
this happening at KCOS was too low to include in the TAF at this
time.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Sunday for COZ070-071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion