Maples, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

385
FXUS63 KSGF 231923
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
223 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periods of widespread heavy rainfall and flooding are forecast
  to occur across our south and southwestern counties this
  morning into Wednesday. A Flood Watch is in effect for
  portions of the area through Wednesday morning.
- There is a marginal to slight risk for severe weather through
  this evening, primarily south of Highway 60. A risk for a
  tornado or two exists for areas along the Arkansas state
  line.
- Seasonal temperatures and lingering rain chances will occur
  midweek before drier, more pleasant conditions arrive into the
  weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A warm front remains over the area with a surface low over
central Oklahoma and waves of upper level energy moving through.
The surface low will shift over the area this evening, resulting
in increased wind fields, including wind shear. Instability
remains limited across the area due to widespread rain and cloud
cover, but some clearing is occuring over the southwestern CWA,
where dewpoints are higher than elsewhere at around 70F. MLCAPE
should increase to 1,000-2,000 J/kg south of I-44 later this
afternoon into the evening with effective shear of 40-50 kts and
SRH of 200-300. Long arcing hodographs (including SE surface
winds) will result in a tornado threat, but thinking that will
be greatest along the MO/AR border where the greatest low level
instability exists along a remnant convective boundary.
Overall expectations are for an uptick in convection later this
afternoon and evening, with some convection become severe given
ample fields for organized severe weather. Hail up to golf ball
size will be possible (mainly over the southwestern CWA) and
damaging winds along and south of I-44. A low end (5%) tornado
threat exists near the MO/AR border.
By late evening, stronger convection should exit the
southeastern CWA, but light rain, fog, and at times drizzle will
linger into Wednesday night or perhaps early Thursday. This is
due to the upper trough remaining over the area. Look for highs
in the 70s Wednesday and lows in the 50s Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
After precip exits the area Wednesday night or Thursday morning,
the rest of the long term is dry. Look for a gradually warning
trend from highs in the 70s Thursday to the low to mid 80s
Saturday, where it will remain into at least early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday morning.
MVFR conditions will become increasingly likely this evening,
then IFR and potentially LIFR condition probabilities will
increase tonight into Wednesday with fog, drizzle, and at times
rain possible.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ088-093>097-
     101>105.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion