Marshall, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

813
FXUS64 KOUN 270359
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1059 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1057 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- Above-average temperatures will continue
- Dry with no rain chances through the week.
- Low chance of a pattern change a week away.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
High pressure centered over Missouri will continue to keep our
weather quite pleasant for the rest of the afternoon and tonight.
There is a surface lee trough over eastern Colorado / New Mexico
which is keeping the winds up slightly higher across the western
half of the area. However, wind speeds will remain relatively
light for all of western Oklahoma and western north Texas through
tonight. Outdoor activities tonight will not be hampered by the
weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
More of the same on Saturday and Sunday. Southwest winds will
likely pick up just a bit across western portions of Oklahoma and
north Texas, but not much higher than today (10-25 mph). Clear
skies expected (other than a few high clouds) for Saturday and
most of Sunday too.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
There`s a lot of active weather going on across the country, but
none of it in our part of the world. Through Thursday of next
week, temperatures will be pretty close to normal, if not a few
degrees warmer than normal. In fact, on Wednesday and Thursday,
temperatures in our Texas Counties will be downright hot for
October, with highs expected in the lower to mid 90s. Not bad for
August, but a little warm for early October.
While technically out of this forecast period`s timeframe, the
most interesting weather occurs next weekend and beyond. The
extended models begin to diverge quite a bit after this timeframe.
Through Friday of next week, the ensemble data for the area is
clustered pretty well, giving a lot of confidence in the forecast.
By next Saturday-Monday, the ensemble values show quite a bit of
forecast spread in the highs,lows, winds, and precipitation
chances. Diving into this a bit more, the GFS appears to be
driving these possibilities. The GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge
rapidly after 12Z on Friday the 3rd...with the GFS showing a sharp
trough and then a cut off low approaching Oklahoma by Saturday.
The Euro continues to have zonal flow aloft and just a hint at a
disturbance.
Bottom line: lots of confidence in the official forecast period.
Low possibility ~25% chance of a pattern shift towards the end of
next week and the weekend. If the GFS is more correct, then rain
chances and cooler temperatures will be in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Light southerly winds and VFR conditions will prevail.
Day
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  84  61  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         87  58  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  86  60  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           85  59  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     85  59  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         85  60  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...14

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion