Martin, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

371
FXUS61 KCLE 231824
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
224 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue southeast across the Great Lakes and
settle over the local area tonight. This front may meander slightly
north on Wednesday over Lake Erie. A low pressure system will move
northeast along this front and through the eastern Great Lakes on
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The forecast area is largely between two features this afternoon,
which are allowing for mostly dry conditions. To the east, a mid-
level shortwave is moving through the upper Ohio River Valley and
allowing for some light showers over eastern Ohio and interior
Northwest PA. These showers will continue to train along a weak
surface boundary and have some PoPs persist through the afternoon in
this region. To the northwest, a frontal boundary over Michigan is
supported by the main upper low that is extending a wave through the
Great Lakes. The convection over Michigan is struggling this
afternoon as storms are hitting an air mass that has been very slow
to recover from morning fog and stratus. The current trajectory of
convection over Michigan is north of the forecast area and remain
largely unconcerned about current returns up north. However, new
development over northern Indiana will be more favorable to sustain
into the Toledo area later this afternoon and have PoPs ramping up
in this region in a few hours.
For tonight, this front will reach the local area but slow
significantly, which will likely keep rain limited to western areas
this evening into tonight. Upper level support for this front will
fade to the northeast, allowing for this front to be less active
tonight. For areas that do not have rain or dense clouds overnight,
there will be good potential for fog and low stratus, which should
favor the eastern half of the forecast area. There could be some
locally dense fog and it is not out of the question that an advisory
may be needed at some point.
Put simply, Wednesday will be wet across the entire area, as the
upper low will extend a more potent shortwave aloft, which should
allow for showers and some thunderstorms to develop along this front
over the region. There should be multiple round of rain to contend
with on Wednesday with a round during the afternoon that will be
more convective from southwest to northeast. Later on, the mode will
be more light and stratiform as the area will either be in a pseudo-
deformation zone of a low pressure system or directly in the path of
an intensifying low on Wednesday night. Therefore, have PoPs on
Wednesday timed with the best chance for convective showers and some
storms and have broader high PoPs for Wednesday night for a lighter
QPF setup. Temperatures on Wednesday will struggle with ample clouds
over the region with the multiple rounds of rain and highs in the
lower 70s will be most favored.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and, to some extent, Friday will feature some additional
wet weather across the region as an upper low opens up into a trough
and a cold front sweeps across the area. Thursday will be the more
sure wet weather day with a surface low departing to the northeast,
dragging a front across the area. This will be coincident with the
upper low opening up and sending additional, supportive energy aloft
through the area. This should allow for most folks to get another
round of rain on Thursday but should be QPF amounts of a half inch
or less. Some residual surface troughiness will remain in the region
on Friday and with some minor help from the lake, could allow for
some isolated to scattered showers to be favored over the eastern
half of the area. The Friday setup is not overly conducive to lake
enhanced rain, but there could be just a touch of lake induced
instability to help out rain chances in NE OH and NW PA. Expecting
cloudy and wet conditions on Thursday to hold temperatures in the
lower 70s. Some breaks in the clouds and rain could allow for highs
in the mid 70s on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As a whole, will go with a dry forecast for this weekend into early
next week. The one day with some uncertainty will be Saturday, as
the forecast area will be between a pair of systems with a trough
digging through Canada and and another undercutting the region over
the Southeast US. This will leave the area in a sort of "No Man`s
Land" of forcing with the southern system cutting off moisture.
Therefore, the best forecast at this time is dry for Saturday, but
if one of these two systems creeps closer to the local area, then
there could be a chance for some rain. Otherwise, upper ridging and
surface high pressure will enter the region for Sunday and beyond
and should allow for dry weather and seasonable temperatures into
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Conditions have been improving across the region as the low stratus
begins to dissipate and terminals start to become VFR. The sites
from KCLE down to KMFD and eastward will be slow to improve though
should become VFR by mid afternoon today. Currently precipitation
wise, there is a line of showers and thunderstorms moving eastward
through south-central Michigan that have been gradually weakening
over the past couple of hours and should not impact conditions at
KTOL, though can`t rule out a stray shower. Additionally, there are
scattered showers across east central Ohio that will clear out and
move into Pennsylvania within the next hour or two.
Conditions are expected to be VFR until early tomorrow morning
as the next low pressure system move in from the west. There may
be some MVFR/IFR visibility with patchy fog across eastern Ohio
early morning tomorrow through mid morning with KYNG expected
to drop to IFR. Confidence is low in how far west the fog will
reach, so opted to keep KCAK at MVFR for tomorrow morning.
Showers will begin over the western terminals around 12-13Z and
bring non-VFR conditions.
Winds will be generally out of the west to northwest today and
light. Overnight winds will become light and variable before
becoming east to southeast at around 5 knots.
Outlook...Widespread non-VFR conditions are expected Wednesday with
rain showers. Non-VFR conditions possible through Friday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds across Lake Erie will be light this evening through the
overnight but predominately out of the west at less than 10 knots.
Low pressure will be moving south of the lake throughout the day
tomorrow and winds will shift to be out of the east-southeast and
increase to around 10 knots. The low will then move northeast over
the lake and winds will shift to be out of the northwest and
increase behind the low to 10 to 15 knots by Thursday morning.
Guidance is still mixed on the strength of the low pressure system
as it traverses the region. Some models have a stronger pressure
gradient with the low and winds increasing to 20 knots. Will need to
monitor this time frame in future forecasts. West to northwesterly
flow is expected across the lake through Saturday night.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion