Maupin, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

326
FXUS66 KPDT 241128
AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
428 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.AVIATION...
KPSC has been reading MVFR to IFR visibility most of the
overnight, improving from around 2SM to 4SM. Little evidence was
showing up on Fog detection satellite channels however the LAMP
VIS categories for that site has forecast the restricted category
and continued through 14z (2-3 SM). We will carry a less
pessimistic 3-5sm with the 12z issuance through around sunrise.
All other terminals are likely (90%) to remain P6SM and clear for
the rest of this TAF period, with light (under 10 knots) easterly
to variable surface winds. 71/Russell
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 224 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025/
DISCUSSION...Dry conditions continue across the PacNW as a high
pressure ridge remains centered just to our east. Temps will
continue to steadily warm through Thursday as a result, before a dry
cold front associated with an upper-level trough swings through the
region during the day Thursday. While precip is not expected, winds
will pick up, especially through the Cascade Gaps. This, combined
with low RHs in the teens and 20s stemming from the ongoing ridge,
will make for elevated fire weather conditions across much of the
forecast area outside of the mountains. What originally looked to be
an uneventful week has thus shifted, as models now depict a more
potent upper-level wave moving through the forecast area during the
latter half of the work week.
Fire Weather Watches have been issued for the Kittitas Valley,
Oregon Basin, and the Warm Springs Reservation. Adjusted RHs down
from the NBM, as the NBM has tended to run wetter than obs over the
course of this summer. The wind forecast remains shaky confidence-
wise, however, as models are split as to how far downstream of the
Cascade Gaps the winds will flow. Sided mostly with the hi-res
guidance like the 00z HREF, which calls for mostly a gap-driven wind
event, which admittedly makes for borderline RHs criteria-wise, but
winds will certainly meet critical condition thresholds. The HREF
extends winds down through the Gorge and into the Oregon Basin, but
not so much the Washington Basin. Global models, however, depict
breezier winds for the WA Basin. We`re far enough out that
definitive decisions don`t have to be made yet, so limited Watch
issuance to just the 3 aforementioned zones, but the oncoming
pattern does favor at the very least elevated wildfire conditions,
even if activity across the forecast area has winded down over the
last several weeks.
Not much change otherwise heading into the weekend, as ensembles
build high pressure back in over the weekend, before re-introducing
PoPs into the forecast area as the synoptic-level flow shifts more
SW heading into early next week. By Day 7, guidance suggests a
potent low inching its way toward the Pacific coast, which would
imply widespread chances for showers.
AVIATION...06z TAFs (Previous Discussion)...VFR conditions and
winds less than 10 kts are expected through the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  84  53  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  85  59  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  84  50  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  85  53  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  84  52  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  84  51  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  88  44  82  37 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  85  49  86  42 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  87  50  85  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  88  58  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for ORZ691-703.
WA...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for WAZ690.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...71

NWS PDT Office Area Forecast Discussion