Maxey, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

994
FXUS65 KPUB 291105
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
505 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over much of
  southeast and south central Colorado today, with briefly heavy
  rainfall and 45 mph wind gusts possible.
- Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees cooler than
  yesterday, though still a bit warmer than normal for this time
  of year.
- At and above seasonal temperatures and mainly dry for the middle
  of the work week.
- Increasing chances for showers and storms on Friday, with
  cooler and more unsettled weather for the weekend into early
  next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Currently...
Middle and high clouds are still present over much of the forecast
area, especially the high country, as the remains of a degrading
low/open wave sit off to our southwest. Showers have dissipated.
Temperatures remain several degrees warmer than normal for this time
of year, with much of our plains still in the 50s as of 1 AM.
Dewpoints are in the 40s over the plains, with 30s for the San Luis
Valley. Winds are generally light and are either following normal
drainage patterns near the higher terrain, or are southerly further
east.
Today and Tonight...
Models continue to show the open wave translating across Colorado
throughout the day today, finally passing overhead by early tomorrow
morning. As it passes over us, we`ll likely see our best chances for
showers and thunderstorms today, though forcing will degrade with
time as the wave weakens. Subtropical moisture continues to be in
play today though, which will bring wetting rain chances to much of
the area. Instability and shear both look to be too meager for any
severe chances, though a few storms could possibly produce wind
gusts to 45 mph or so, along with briefly heavy rainfall and
lightning. Much of the area will see isolated to scattered coverage
of showers and storms with storm motions generally southwest to
northeast throughout much of the afternoon and early evening hours.
Daytime high temperatures will be just a couple of degrees cooler
than yesterday, which will still be just slightly warmer than normal
for most. Highs look to climb into the low to mid 80s over much of
the plains, with 70s for the Pikes Peak region and the southern I-25
corridor, and 60s for our mountain valleys. Model guidance suggests
showers and storms should clear west to east, with our eastern
plains and all other locations clear by around 9 or 10pm at the
latest this evening. We`ll be left with another night of slightly
warmer than normal overnight low temperatures as the wave progresses
slowly eastwards.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Tuesday...Another embedded short wave within the modest southwest flow
aloft across the region on Tuesday, will bring isolated to scattered
showers, along with a few embedded thunderstorms, to the higher terrain
through the day Tuesday, with the best coverage expected along and west
of the ContDvd. Temperatures remain above seasonal levels with highs
in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the plains, in the 60s and 70s across
the high mountain valleys and mainly in the 50s and 60s across the
higher terrain
Tuesday night-Thursday night...Modest west to southwest flow aloft
remains progged across the region, as upper level ridging builds
across the Rockies through the middle of the week. This will keep
generally dry conditions and above seasonal temperatures in place
with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s expected across the plains,
and mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. Overnight
lows look to remain at and above seasonal levels as well, with no
widespread sub-freezing temperatures in the offing through this period.
Friday-Saturday...Latest models continue to indicate increasing
southwest flow aloft across the region on Friday, ahead of a broad
upper trough digging across the Great Basin. This will allow for
increasing chances of showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms,
especially along and west of the ContDvd on Friday, with temperatures
warming to well above seasonal levels in the 80s to lower 90s across
the plains. Models continue to differ on the amplitude of the this
system as it continues to lift out across the Rockies through the day
Saturday. With that said, NBM data keeps chance to slight chance pops
in in place across the region, with the best chances across the Central
mountains into the Pikes Peak region and northward across Northern
Colorado Friday night and Saturday. Passing system sends a cold front
across the region, with highs on Saturday some 5-15 degrees cooler than
Friday.
Sunday-Monday...A cooler and continued unsettled weather remains in the
offing for the end of the weekend into early next week, as more short
wave energy digs across the Great Basin and lifts out across the
Rockies.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites for the next 24
hours. Middle and upper-level cloud cover is expected to persist
through much of today, decreasing in coverage through the very end
of the forecast period. Winds will be mainly light and diurnally
driven, though we will also see the potential for gusty thunderstorm
outflow winds to 30kt or so later this afternoon. At this time,
chances for thunderstorms near KALS are too to include in the TAF
(less than 30%), but have kept mention of vcsh given that showers
will likely be present along the higher terrain surrounding the
station today. Chances for storms over and near KCOS and KPUB are
higher (30%) today, with highest chances from 22Z through 02Z. If a
stronger storm manages to move over either station, a brief
reduction to MVFR conditions may be possible.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion