Mc Alpin, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

767
FXUS62 KJAX 020042
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
842 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Dangerous Beach & Marine Impacts through the Weekend: High Rip
  Current Risk, High Surf & Small Craft Advisory conditions
- Extended Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding through the Weekend.
  Today: St. Johns River Basin, Northeast FL Coast & Portions of
  ICCW. Thursday Weekend: Expands to include southeast GA Coast
- Rain Chance Increase Thursday through Weekend. Daily Rounds of Heavy
  Rain & Isolated Embedded Thunderstorms. Localized Flood Risk at
  Coast & Low-lying Locations
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Hoisted a Coastal Flood Watch for Flagler and St Johns coasts and
intracoastal waterways as well as the St Johns River basin south
of Jacksonville. Moderate tidal flooding will be possible in these
areas during high tide beginning Thursday evening and continuing
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
As high pressure ridge builds down the SE US coastline later today
and tonight, still on track for a NE wind surge to push into the
Atlantic Coastal counties with sustained winds increasing to
15-25mph with gusts of 30-40 mph expected, while near breezy winds
are expected over inland areas later today at 10-15G20-25 mph,
before decreasing to around 10 mph after sunset. This surge of
winds will bring additional moisture and convergence along
Atlantic Coastal area with increasing rainfall chances, as only
isolated showers are expected across NE FL this afternoon and
evening, then becoming more scattered to numerous in nature
tonight over the Atlantic Coastal waters which will push onshore
into the St. Johns/Flagler county areas during the overnight hours
with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall potential towards
morning, with some of the activity reaching into the St. Johns
River Basin at times. Low temps will fall into the lower/middle
60s across inland SE GA and upper 60s/near 70F across inland NE FL
and remain in the lower to middle 70s along the Atlantic Coastal
areas in the breezy to windy onshore flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Strong high pressure will remain centered to the northeast this
period, with the ridge extending south across the area. An inverted
trough is expected to persist over the coastal waters. The inverted
trough will provide convergence for showers, and a few diurnal
thunderstorms this period. The greatest chance for precipitation
will be over eastern counties, as showers will tend to dissipate
further inland due to drier air and ridging.
A fairly tight pressure gradient will be located over the area this
period, leading to elevated onshore winds. Breezy conditions will
prevail near the coast, with winds decreasing further inland.
Due to the expected cloud and precipitation coverage Highs on
Thursday and Friday will range from 80 to 85, with the coolest
readings near the coast. A few locations over coastal SE GA may not
reach 80 on Friday. Temperatures will not fall as much near the
coast during the nights due to the cloud cover. So, lows will range
from the lower to mid 60s inland, to the lower 70s near the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The high pressure center will slowly move further to the east
northeast and weaken somewhat this period. Long range models
continue to depict coastal troughing lingering throughout this
period. The strength of the onshore flow will gradually lessen from
day to day, with coastal winds decreasing.
Highs in the lower to middle 80s will be common this period, with
the coolest readings still at the coast. Lows in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, with warmest readings at the coast. The added cloud cover
will be responsible for the cooler days and warmer nights near the
coast.
Precipitation chances will persist this period, with greatest
chances near the coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Breezy NE winds and mostly VFR conditions prevail through the
period. MVFR ceilings will linger at coastal TAF sites overnight.
NE winds around 10 kts or less expected overnight and quickly
increase after 12Z. Wind gusts will generally be in the 20-25
knot range, with potential gusts up to 30 kts for SSI and SGJ.
Coastal showers will shift onshore mainly south of SGJ through 18Z
before shifting northward. Have VCSH and TEMPO for SGJ at this
time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Small Craft Advisory conditions with strong north-northeasterly
winds and elevated seas will persist across the coastal waters
through the upcoming weekend and into next week, along with
occasional wind gusts to Gale Force. Strong high pressure will
wedge down the southeastern seaboard tonight and Thursday. Coastal
troughing will sharpen over our local waters late this week,
generating increasing chances for showers and embedded
thunderstorms late tonight into Thursday. Winds will shift to
easterly by Friday and the weekend as high pressure shifts
offshore of the Mid-Atlantic states. Gale Watches and/or Warnings
may need to be posted as the pinched pressure gradient increases
late Thursday Night into Friday.
Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents and high surf advisory
conditions, along with moderate to severe beach erosion will
continue at Atlantic beachfront locations through this week and
into the upcoming weekend. Surf/breakers into the 8-12 ft range
will continue this week into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Minor tidal flooding will continue along the St. Johns River from
downtown JAX southward and along the NE FL Atlantic inter-coastal
areas of St. Johns/Flagler counties through Thursday and will keep
Coastal Flood Advisory in place as peak water levels remain
generally in the 1.5 to 2.0 ft above MHHW range. The NE surge of
winds arriving tonight will start to trap more water in the St.
Johns River Basin and combine with higher astronomical tides due
to the full Moon during the Thursday afternoon and evening high
tide cycle and expect water levels to peak around 2 ft above MHHW,
which will require at least Coastal Flood Advisories for
widespread Minor Coastal Flooding for the entire St. Johns River
Basin and all beachfront locations of NE FL/SE GA from late
Thursday through the weekend. The latest PETSS guidance is still
advertising water levels peaking closer to 2.0 to 2.5 ft above
MHHW for the late Friday high tide cycle and all through the
weekend for the potential for widespread Moderate coastal flooding
on the St. Johns River Basin and at least locally Moderate water
levels at NE FL/SE GA beachfront locations, along with moderate to
severe beach erosion and a Coastal Flood Watch and/or Warning may
need to be posted at some point for this scenario.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  82  62  82 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  70  79  70  79 /   0  40  60  50
JAX  70  82  69  82 /  10  40  50  70
SGJ  73  83  71  82 /  30  40  70  70
GNV  70  85  68  85 /  10  20  20  40
OCF  70  85  70  84 /  10  20  10  40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
     FLZ124-125.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ132-137-
     138-233-333-633.
Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Sunday evening
     for FLZ132-137-138-233-333-633.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ325.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166.
High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
     GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion