Mc Bain, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

913
FXUS63 KAPX 281706
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
106 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Anomalously warm during the day through Monday.
- Dry airmass and clear skies permits an outside shot at patchy
  frost across the interior terrain of northern lower tonight.
- Dry and mild weather through most of next week, with a degree
  of concern toward fire weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Pattern Synopsis:
Ridging building overhead with quick zonal flow confined to north of
Lake Superior, forcing any incoming waves well northward through
Ontario. Mature low over Hudson Bay slowly progressing eastward, but
with enough force to send a cold front through the area that will
clear the area by daybreak. As such, anticipating any lingering low
level moisture to quickly scour away as surface high pressure over
Minnesota moves eastward and a strong subsidence inversion
suppresses cloud cover, with ample mixing from an impressive dry
layer aloft sending dewpoints tumbling through the day as
temperatures hold above normal across the board.
Forecast Details:
Some low stratus / fog over portions of northern lower will scour
out rather quickly through the morning as the aforementioned surface
high pressure asserts itself. W to WNW flow will prevail through the
day, as temperatures recover soundly from the cold frontal passage,
with highs peaking well into the 70s across northern lower east of
US 131 (warmest NE lower) and anywhere from 69 to 74 most elsewhere
across northern lower into eastern upper.
Will have to see how much of that drier air can mix to the surface
(it looks like it will be efficient), as we will be contending with
RHs tumbling perhaps as low as the 20s across the interior of
northern lower into far northeast lower. Fortunately, flow does not
look to be all that strong, with sustained winds generally peaking
around 5 to 10mph, with perhaps a 15 to 20mph gust in the afternoon.
That being said, with drying vegetation combined with timber debris
from the March ice storm across northern lower, it is paramount to
exercise caution if doing any burning (and check the DNR website for
burn permits), as fire weather concerns will certainly be non-zero
Sunday, and this trend will only carry through the long term period
as we embark on what looks to easily be at least a week`s worth of
dry and warmer weather across the Northwoods.
Heading into tonight, surface high pressure will settle right
overhead, and after a day of efficient mixing sending dewpoints well
into the 30s, that will be conducive for one of the chillier nights
we have had in a while. The airmass will certainly be dry, and with
excellent radiational cooling, interior locales are potentially on
the docket to see lows dip into the low-to-mid 30s (Roscommon,
Grayling, Atlanta, etc.). While not opting to issue a Frost Advisory
this forecast cycle, definitely not impossible to see one in the
next cycle, and this will be added to messaging. For folks along the
coasts, probably wind up in the low to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Dry weather is the name of the game through the long term forecast
period. Anticipating another anomalously warm day Monday as highs
spike well into the 70s and perhaps even 80s. Backdoor cold front
will begin to pass through the region as the surface high moves east
into Ontario, and flow turns into a much more easterly and dry
regime with Rex Blocking essentially locking that surface high in
place over the duration of the long term period.
As such, Tuesday looks to see those cooler temperatures filter in
across the eastern half of the area (spots along and west of US 131
may still make a run at 80), before the cooler and drier regime
overtakes the rest of the region by midweek. Highs in the 60s to
near 70 (coolest NE lower) will prevail, and with dewpoints dropping
well into the 30s, will see low RHs that will prolong the
aforementioned fire weather concerns from the Short Term period. The
fortunate part about this pattern is that there aren`t any glaring
windier days to really drive fire growth, but nonetheless,
anticipating very low RHs amid the drying vegetation. As such, will
still probably be contending with fire weather concerns in some
capacity, but perhaps not red flag warnings.
In addition to the fire danger, frost potential looks to be on the
increase as well (climatologically, this isn`t too anomalous). With
dewpoints hanging potentially as low as the lower 30s, certainly on
the table to have some chilly nights in this pattern with decoupling
/ calming winds at the surface, which could allow for some nights
where temperatures dip well below guidance depiction at this
juncture (would not be surprising to see temps bottom out near 30 a
couple nights across the interior).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Dry high pressure in control through Monday. Expect most areas
should remain cloud-free through this TAF period. However...have
some concerns for patchy low stratus/fog to redevelop tonight...most
likely at CIU and MBL, possibly at PLN...which could reduce
cigs/visbys to LIFR in a hurry...though only hint at this for now.
Non-zero threat for fog/low stratus at TVC and APN, but less likely
than other TAF sites. Any fog should burn off between 12-15z Monday.
Winds remain a bit stronger (5-10kts) and more westerly at CIU
through the night; elsewhere, expect lake breezes this afternoon
with light land breezes overnight. Prevailing winds will be from the
southwest at 5kts or less Monday morning.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...FEF

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion