Mc Henry, Maryland Weather Forecast Discussion

004
FXUS61 KPBZ 230605
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
205 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue tonight. Rain
chances remain elevated throughout week with slightly above-
average temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers and a few thunderstorms tonight
---------------------------------------------------------------
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to move across
the region tonight. The latest mesoanalysis shows shear has
increase, helping to maintain the showers/storms, though
instability has waned enough to preclude a severe storm
potential for the rest of the evening.
Moist SW flow and additional shortwave supported lift should
maintain showers overnight as well. An isolated thunderstorm is
possible, though elevated instability should be minimal.
Overnight lows are expected to be around 10 degrees above
average with the cloud cover and showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Probabilities remain elevated for rain on Tuesday/Wednesday
----------------------------------------------------------------
Confidence remains high that rain chances will persist Tuesday
into Wednesday as a trough lingers over the Ohio River Valley. With
continuing southwest flow, as the trough axis remains
positioned west of the region, probability of measurable
rainfall is above 70%. For Tuesday morning, probabilities are
elevated (between 40-50%) for 1 inch of rainfall for areas north
of Pittsburgh due to the position of the left exit region of
the upper-level jet.
Compared to Monday, the potential for strong storms is
considered low due to the lack of instability. Lightning will
likely be the only threat associated with any developing
thunderstorm.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Elevated precipitation chances through Friday
- Near average temperatures
- Drier conditions expected over the weekend
------------------------------------------------------------------
An upper-level trough will continue to influence the region late
week, keeping rain chances in place through Friday. The greatest
potential for heavier rainfall is expected Thursday morning into
Thursday evening as the low tracks into western Pennsylvania.
By late Thursday, increasing mid- and upper-level dry air will
move in from the west. While lingering low-level moisture will
still support a few scattered rain showers, the risk for heavier
rainfall rates will diminish.
Looking ahead, long-range ensembles suggests a ridge will build
over the Ohio River Valley from Friday through Sunday, bringing
decreasing precipitation chances. Afternoon high temperatures
are projected to run about 5 degrees above average, topping out
in the mid-70s. Overnight lows should remain near average,
especially if clear skies favor radiational cooling in the wake
of passing cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered showers and cig restrictions look likely to continue
through the morning based off latest observations and guidance.
Latest NBM probabilities give between a 50%-75% probability of
IFR through the morning across the region, improving to only single
digits by mid-afternoon. Fog and stratus restrictions are possible
again overnight (about a 70% chance of at least MVFR on average
across the region) night.
.OUTLOOK....
Improvement to VFR is expected early Wednesday before
approaching low pressure brings restrictions and rain back to
the region later Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Building
high pressure should return VFR later Friday through Saturday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM/Hefferan
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...88

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion