149 FXUS61 KPBZ 232357 AFDPBZArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 757 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will cross the region and bring scattered showers through late this evening. Higher rain chances are forecast Wednesday into early Thursday. A dry period is anticipated over the weekend.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers dissipate this evening - Dense fog potential after midnight ---------------------------------------------------------------
A narrow band of showers with some embedded thunder has progressed eastward across the area this evening along an axis of low- level convergence with some meager surface based instability to work with. Weak shear and forcing, with warm air in the mid- levels, suppressed this from being any more than some progressive moderate to heavy rain at times. With loss of daytime heating, expect the line to fizzle out after sunset though a few showers may linger in the ridges with orographic ascent.
High-resolution models also indicate that dense fog may develop after midnight, supported by ample boundary layer moisture from earlier convection and light winds. If widespread low-visibility conditions develop, a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed. HREF probability for
NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion