Mc Nary, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

608
FXUS64 KEPZ 191134
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
534 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms area wide
   Friday afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of heavy
   rain and flooding.
- Drier and warmer weather this weekend into next week. Rain
   chances more limited to area mountains. Lowland highs in the
   lower nineties next week, warmer than normal for late
   September.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
A few lingering rain showers tonight, mostly along the
International Border. Staying mostly overcast tonight will keep
temperatures warmer than usual, with lows in the mid-60s across
much of the desert lowlands.
Weak shortwave aloft moving across Arizona and New Mexico on
Friday will dampen the influence of the upper high centered over
northern Mexico. Larger-scale synoptic ascent will result in much
greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening area wide. Storm chances beginning across western New
Mexico around noon, spreading quickly across the Rio Grande valley
and I-10 corridor by 4-6PM. 00Z HRRR run suggests 80-90% coverage
of storms tomorrow.
Atmospheric conditions will be favorable for numerous
thunderstorms on Friday across southern NM and far west TX.
800-1200 J/kg of CAPE combined with precipitable water 1.2-1.4"
(around the 90-percentile seasonally) will be sufficient for
numerous (80-90% coverage) storms, moving west-to-east across the
region. Main concern will be flooding, especially within the
pockets of 1.00" or greater. Storm chances will come to an end
late Friday night as the shortwave exits.
This weekend looks mostly dry as the Mexican high pressure builds
and ridging flow suppresses the majority of storm chances.
Moisture content also drops, with PWs falling to around 1.0".
Can`t rule out isolated storms over the mountains and high
terrain, but it certainly looks like El Paso/Las Cruces will
remain dry over the weekend. We should also see a subtle warming
trend over the weekend and into early next week, with lowland
highs back in the lower 90s each afternoon.
Major differences in rain chances between the global deterministic
models this cycle. All models agree on a general pattern of a
broad upper high over northern Mexico and a Pacific low off the
coast of southern CA. GFS bring the Pacific low much closer,
pulling in greater amounts of moisture out of Baja. ECMWF is more
confident in the drier solution. NBM is leaning very heavy into
the drier ECMWF ensembles right now, thus very little mention of
rain in this forecast for next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Showers and ISO TSRA will be ongoing for the next hour or two with
dissipation anticipated by 13z. Skies this afternoon will
generally be SCT-BKN with bases to 100. By this afternoon into the
evening, there is a good chance (greater than 50%) for scattered
to widespread SHRA and TSRA, but timing for impacts at each TAF
site is a bit low. I will let the PROB30 ride for this TAF cycle
update. +RA and gusty winds will be the main hazards with any
thunderstorm.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 527 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated. An upper-
level disturbance will move through the area this afternoon and
evening bringing scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Min RH values will range in the upper 30s to lower
40s with highs near normal. Venting will range poor to fair,
limited by light winds. We will see a drying trend and subsequent
shower and thunderstorm chances starting Saturday with storms
mainly limited to the mountains. Nevertheless, minimum RH values
are expected to stay well above critical thresholds through the
forecast period even in spite of warming afternoon highs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  90  68  91  69 /  30  60  10   0
Sierra Blanca            86  61  86  61 /  30  50  20  10
Las Cruces               85  61  86  62 /  50  50  10   0
Alamogordo               85  60  86  62 /  50  50  10  10
Cloudcroft               62  45  64  46 /  70  50  20  10
Truth or Consequences    81  59  84  62 /  60  50  10   0
Silver City              78  55  81  57 /  80  50  20   0
Deming                   87  61  89  61 /  60  50  10   0
Lordsburg                85  62  86  63 /  70  40  10   0
West El Paso Metro       88  67  88  68 /  30  60  10   0
Dell City                88  63  90  61 /  30  40  10   0
Fort Hancock             92  68  92  68 /  30  50  10   0
Loma Linda               81  60  82  62 /  40  50  10   0
Fabens                   90  65  90  66 /  30  50  10   0
Santa Teresa             87  64  87  64 /  30  60  10   0
White Sands HQ           86  63  87  66 /  50  60  10  10
Jornada Range            84  60  85  62 /  60  50  10  10
Hatch                    87  60  88  61 /  60  50  10   0
Columbus                 89  63  88  64 /  40  50  10   0
Orogrande                84  60  84  61 /  50  60  10  10
Mayhill                  72  51  77  52 /  70  50  20   0
Mescalero                74  49  77  51 /  70  50  20  10
Timberon                 71  49  74  51 /  60  50  20  10
Winston                  74  48  78  50 /  80  50  20   0
Hillsboro                82  56  85  59 /  70  50  20   0
Spaceport                82  58  84  59 /  60  50  10  10
Lake Roberts             77  50  81  50 /  80  50  20   0
Hurley                   81  57  83  58 /  70  50  10   0
Cliff                    85  58  87  58 /  80  40  10   0
Mule Creek               80  55  83  57 /  80  30  10   0
Faywood                  80  58  82  58 /  70  50  10   0
Animas                   86  62  87  63 /  60  40  10   0
Hachita                  85  60  85  62 /  60  50  10   0
Antelope Wells           86  60  87  63 /  60  50  10   0
Cloverdale               81  59  82  61 /  60  50  10   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion