Mc Rae Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

252
FXUS64 KLZK 071742 AAA
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1242 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
-A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible across the state
 through tonight.
-Cooler temperatures and much drier air will be seen in the coming
 days.
-Above normal temperatures are expected by this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
As of 2 AM CDT, light to moderate rain continues to fall across
portions of northeastern Arkansas associated with a sfc low pressure
system that is positioned over the Mid-South region of the CONUS.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT:
An upper lvl broad, positively-tilted trof over the northern Plains
region of the CONUS combined with an inverted trof of low pressure
at the sfc will advect moist southerly to southeasterly flow into
Arkansas. The moisture influx, combined with isentropic ascent will
assist in the potential for scattered showers and storms, especially
across the eastern half of Arkansas. A potential for local heavy
rainfall does exist (similar to Sunday) as a modest 850 mb low-level
jet develops over the Mid-South region of the CONUS. The presence of
the development of this 850 mb low-level jet may lead to a few
maxima or enhanced rainfall totals that near a half inch of rainfall
with an outlier chance a few locations approach and/or exceed 1 inch
of total rainfall today across eastern Arkansas, but confidence is
low.
Expect temperatures to remain above normal by 5 to 8 degrees overall
as a cold front will begin to move across the state today from
northwest to southeast, but the drier and cooler airmass will not be
felt at the sfc until Wednesday across Arkansas.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
The airmass behind the FROPA will be cooler and drier which will
bring temperatures overall to average for this time of the year
across the Natural State. The sfc high pressure center will shift
into the Great Lakes region of the CONUS which will lead to
northeasterly sfc winds for the middle and later portion of the work
week. Expect plentiful amounts of sunshine with fair weather
conditions overall. The next opportunity for precipitation does
appear to be on the horizon for the state of next week; however this
far out model confidence is low overall and cohesion between models
does not exist at the moment.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
A few showers/storms are possible through 08/06z but coverage will
remain very limited and there is a low probability that precip
will be seen at area terminals. In the wake of a cold front moving
SE across the state, sfc winds will become NW-NE through
Wednesday. Sustained winds of 5-10 kts can be expected with
occasional gusts above 15 kts at times. Cigs will vary, but will
largely be between MVFR/IFR through 08/18z. There could be a few
terminals that see FG development early Wednesday morning as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     61  77  50  75 /  20   0   0   0
Camden AR         65  81  56  78 /  10  10   0   0
Harrison AR       56  74  49  73 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    65  78  55  77 /  10  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  66  77  55  75 /  10  10   0   0
Monticello AR     66  82  57  78 /  10  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      63  79  54  78 /  10  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  58  76  50  74 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        64  77  51  75 /  30   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     66  79  54  76 /  10  10   0   0
Russellville AR   64  80  55  79 /  10  10   0   0
Searcy AR         64  78  52  75 /  30  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      66  78  54  75 /  10  10   0   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
KEY MESSAGES...67
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...67

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion