Meiners Oaks, California Weather Forecast Discussion

765
FXUS66 KLOX 072138
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
238 PM PDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...07/204 PM.
Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue today
with most areas a few degrees warmer than yesterday. A
significant cooling trend will begin Monday resulting in much
cooler than normal temperatures by Wednesday and Thursday as a
low pressure system approaches California.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...07/236 PM.
Today was the last day of warming before the significant cooling
trend starts up on Monday. This cooling will be a result of a low
pressure system moving toward northern California, with an
associated trough extended southward over SW CA. Most areas will
experience 2-5 degrees of cooling Monday, then another 3-6 degrees
of cooling Tuesday resulting in highs 5-10 degrees below normal
in all areas except the immediate coast. Highs across the
immediate coast will remain just slightly below normal during
Monday and Tuesday.
As the trough moves toward the region, 500mb heights will drop,
and cause rapid deepening of the marine layer, with clouds likely
pushing into the valleys by Tuesday morning if not before. With
the cooling aloft causing ascending air in the boundary layer with
the deepening marine layer, there is a possibility of some
morning drizzle Monday and Tuesday across the coast and valleys,
mainly south of Pt Conception. Depending on how quickly the
marine layer deepens it`s also possible some coastal areas will
remain cloudy all day.
As the trough moves onshore later Monday, increasing northerly
flow will generate some gusty Sundowner winds across southwest
Santa Barbara County Monday evening with gusts to 45 mph. With
increasing onshore flow to the east, there will be some gusty
southwest winds, especially on Tuesday, across the Antelope
Valley/adjacent foothills, and especially the eastern San Gabriel
Mountains (where gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in the mtns).
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...07/238 PM.
The upper low will basically take up camp along the West Coast
all week, maintaining much below normal temperatures, especially
inland where highs will be as much as 10-15 degrees below normal
Wednesday through at least Friday. 500mb heights will drop below
580dam, the lowest it has been since June. The marine layer will
likely be at least 3000 feet deep with very slow clearing,
especially near the coast. There will be drizzle chances each
night and morning through Friday, especially LA/Ventura Counties.
However, the best chances for drizzle will be on Wednesday and
Thursday, as upper level vorticity combines with the deepening
marine layer and cooling temperatures aloft, mainly Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.
Most of the ensemble solutions support a slow warming trend next
week but temperatures will remain at least 3-6 degrees below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1731Z.
At 1702Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2400 feet with a temperature of 26 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).
High confidence in VFR TAFs for San Fernando Valley airfields.
-> (KVNY & KBUR).
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. LIFR to IFR conditions for
sites with forecasted CIGs. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be
off by 2 hours.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Arrival and departure of
CIGs may be off by 2 hours, and flight categories could be off by
one cat when CIGs are present. Heights likely in range 003-007.
No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF.
&&
.MARINE...07/232 PM.
Localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level wind gusts are
possible across the waters north of Point Conception during the
afternoon & evening hours through the remainder of the weekend.
Widespread SCA level winds are expected during the afternoon &
evening hours south of Point Conception through the rest of the
weekend.
This coming week, high confidence in SCA level winds during the
afternoon & evening hours south of Point Conception, with a 20%
chance of GALE force wind gusts Monday & Tuesday. Marginal SCA
level wind gusts each afternoon/eve  will be possible north of
Point Conception through Wednesday, with increasing chances
through next weekend. Seas are likely to remain at or below 8 feet
through Friday.
Inside the southern California bight, SCA level winds will be
widespread across the Santa Barbara Channel, with a moderate
chance of reaching the Ventura Coastline & Santa Monica Bay
Monday afternoon/evening & even more likely on Tuesday. Wind
gusts may reach 30 kt across the SBA Channel, with a 10% chance
(Monday) & a 20% chance (Tuesday) of GALE force wind gusts.
Also, seas may exceed 5 feet across western/southern portions of
the SBA Channel on Monday & Tuesday. Wind gusts greater or equal
to 21 kts is possible across the San Pedro Channel, near Point
Dume, and the western portion of PZZ655 each afternoon/eve over
the next several days.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM Monday to 5 AM PDT
      Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Lund
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion