Melbeta, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

037
FXUS65 KCYS 202105
AFDCYS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
305 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy conditions and mountain precipitation are expected this
  weekend, but overall conditions should be fair with a slight
  warming trend expected.
- A cold front and weather disturbance will bring cooler and
  wetter weather for Monday and Tuesday, before a ridge aloft
  produces drier and warmer weather for Wednesday through
  Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Scattered to broken cloud cover and a few echoes are noted on
radar as of this afternoon. Dynamic parameters remain
unimpressive however, with MUCAPE almost non-existent outside of
the Nebraska Panhandle. The shortwave producing this should
continue to fuel the potential for a few more isolated showers
and very weak storms through this evening, mainly across the
high terrain and adjacent plains as orographic features will be
the primary lift mechanism, with activity waning as the sun
sets.
Into Sunday, another shortwave and further moisture feed should
produce another round of precipitation chances, primarily across
the high terrain and adjacent plains once again, but this time
precipitation probabilities should be a little higher thanks to
a bit more support in the form of slightly more instability and
meager wind shear. Still, nothing indicates potent activity, and
we should once again see primarily rainfall with a few embedded
thunderstorms in a scattered nature. Meanwhile an approaching
Pacific trough will help to tighten the pressure gradient, and
between the shortwaves and this incoming system, we should see
breezy winds from today continuing through overnight Sunday into
Monday, though 700mb winds are only expected to max around 35
knots, don`t expect our usual high wind warning level criteria -
at least yet.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Monday...A shortwave trough aloft and its associated cold front will
move into our forecast area, producing a cooler day. With dynamics
and diffluent flow aloft, as well as adequate low and mid level
moisture, we expect to see scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...The shortwave trough aloft moves across our counties,
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, along with cooler
temperatures due to cloud cover and precipitation coverage.
Wednesday...A warming and drying trend begins as a high amplitude
ridge aloft builds across Utah and western Wyoming.
Thursday...Dry weather continues with a warming trend as the ridge
aloft transitions over eastern Wyoming.
Friday...Mild and dry weather continues as the ridge aloft moves
eastward over the western high plains and southerly flow aloft
develops over our counties.
Saturday...Although a shortwave trough aloft moves into western
Colorado, most clouds and precipitation associated with the trough
will remain to the south of our counties. 700 mb temperatures
suggest little change in temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Periods of mid-
level cloudiness expected with a system passing across the
region, alongside a chance of some mountain rain. KLAR would be
the most likely site to see any nearby showers, which could
locally impact winds but otherwise should remain mostly light in
nature. Have included VCSH for this site, but probabilities for
thunder too low to include that. Breezy winds most sites with
gusts 15-25 knots. Some clearing is possible overnight with more
precipitation possible tomorrow just beyond or around the end
of the TAF period.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CG

NWS CYS Office Area Forecast Discussion