Melvern, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

913
FXUS63 KTOP 191927
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
227 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Some showers and thunderstorms likely tonight into Saturday
  morning with isolated heavy rain possible. A few severe
  thunderstorms are possible into the early evening mainly in
  western locations with small hail and gusty winds.
- Mainly dry Saturday afternoon and evening but several chances
  for more showers and thunderstorms late weekend into much of
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Upper low over southeastern South Dakota slowly moving east-
southeast with one wave rotating around it over central Nebraska
sparking showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. The wave continues
east-southeast tonight and should continue to support thunderstorms
southeast into the area. Instability this evening may approach 1000
J/kg with deep layer shear enough to support a few severe
thunderstorms until around sunset in north-central and central
Kansas. A modest low-level jet looks to form tonight though there
are differences in where the best convergence will set up, but
isentropic lift across the entire area suggests at least moderate
chances area-wide. Instability looks modest but precipitable water
values near 1.3 inches and some suggestions of training storms could
lead to some locally heavy rainfall. The wave`s exit late tonight
into Saturday morning should lead to decreasing precipitation with
slightly cooler temperatures. There is some fog potential Saturday
night depending on cloud trends with light winds likely.
There are indications of a weak wave moving through Sunday into
Sunday night for the next chance for showers and storms. LREF
ensembles exhibit a large spread in solutions by Tuesday with
clusters showing ridging, troughing, and nearly zonal flow, though
recent GFS and ECMWF runs support troughing Monday night into
Tuesday where higher NBM PoPs are supported. Somewhat warmer
temperatures are likely Monday with cooler conditions behind the
likely trough Tuesday into the late week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions should persist until at least 03Z. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms increase after this though uncertainty
on where and when the greatest coverage will be is low. Will go
ahead with a PROB30 group for the most likely timing for now.
There are some indications limiting ceilings forming late in
this forecast and will need to be monitored.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion