Mentone, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

795
FXUS63 KIWX 231741
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
141 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An active weather period will continue through Thursday with
  numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Severe weather
  is not expected at this time.
- High temperatures will range from 70 to around 80 degrees,
  with lows in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A line of showers and thunderstorms has been slowly sagging
southeast ahead of a stationary front that is draped across
Lower Michigan southwestward into northern Illinois. This
activity will continue to progress across northern Indiana this
afternoon and evening and eventually into northwest Ohio
tonight. There is decent instability of around 1500 J/kg, but
shear is weak, so severe weather is not expected. However, small
hail will be possible in some of the more robust storms.
An upper low over the northern Great Lakes will then start to
drop south tonight and interact with a stronger shortwave moving
up from the southwest into the Ohio Valley. This will be a focus
for heavier rain on Wednesday, mainly southeast of US 24. The
shortwave will move east of the area during the afternoon, but
the upper trough axis will still be over the region, allowing
northerly low-level flow to usher in cooler air, and highs will
struggle to reach 70 degrees. The low will continue to impact
the region on Thursday with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
Dry conditions will return Friday through the middle of next
week as large scale troughing shifts east and high pressure
builds back into the middle of the country. Mild temperatures
can then be expected over the weekend with highs in the mid to
upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Showers and isolated storms will remain in the vicinity of KSBN
this afternoon near a weak mid level trough and sfc boundary.
This boundary and/or any outflows are expected to near KFWA by
late this afternoon and evening with chances for a few showers
or storms by this time. Mainly VFR outside of any convection
otherwise at each terminal into this evening, with lingering
MVFR stratocu at KFWA likely mixing out by TAF issuance.
A low pressure system, currently over the Central Plains, ejects
east through the OH Valley later tonight into Wednesday morning
with a period of rain likely clipping KFWA with at least MVFR
conditions. Lower confidence at KSBN with the bulk of the
moisture potentially bypassing south.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...Steinwedel

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion