Meriden, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

436
FXUS63 KTOP 071121
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
621 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Next chance of rain (20-60%) comes Monday into early Tuesday.
- Temperatures gradually warm up through the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Northwest flow continues aloft with a low-amplitude ridge over the
Rockies and another low upstream in the Pacific. Surface high
pressure continues to dominate the Plains, although the ridge axis
has shifted east just slightly since yesterday. So far this morning,
shallow fog has come and gone briefly here in the river valley at
TOP and guidance has generally not had as strong of a signal for
further development compared to yesterday. Will continue to monitor
through the morning, but current thinking is that it may stay
confined to low-lying areas more prone to fog formation. Otherwise,
today looks quite similar to yesterday with plenty of sunshine and
temperatures just a few degrees warmer as highs reach the upper 70s
and possibly even a few 80-degree readings.
Monday into early Tuesday morning brings the next chance for showers
and thunderstorms as a subtle perturbation rounds the aforementioned
ridge over the Rockies. Isentropic lift and a veering LLJ ahead of
that wave could generate some disorganized activity as soon as the
predawn hours Monday morning in north central KS. An early look at
CAMs already shows differences in how that might evolve, but most of
them show a cluster of storms developing in south central KS in the
morning, propagating south into OK during the afternoon. The
northern edge of this would impact our southwestern counties through
the morning. Right now it is only the FV3 that does little with this
initial round with a more robust round of storms late Monday night
into early Tuesday. If the first scenario materializes, that does
lead to questions about what environmental conditions will be left
to support redevelopment later in the afternoon and evening, even
though ascent from the shortwave should provide an opportunity for
additional storms. Overall the best instability is towards central
KS, but MUCAPE up to around 500-700 J/kg would still be sufficient
for thunderstorms. Any severe risk looks conditional on whether
redevelopment can occur as shear looks modest until later in the day.
After the shortwave exits early Tuesday, rising mid-level heights
should support a gradual warming trend through the rest of the week
with highs in the 80s, even approaching 90 towards the end of the
week. Weak perturbations ejecting out of the deepening trough to our
west may lead to a couple of precip chances in the second half of
the week, but low confidence leads to low PoPs through that period
at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
There have been a couple of brief drops in vsby at TOP with
shallow fog through the night, so will continue with a tempo
group to IFR to account for vsby bouncing around until the BL
starts mixing this morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
with light winds from the SE through the period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion