Merrifield, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

333
FXUS61 KBGM 191840
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
240 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of our weather through
the weekend, with dry and mostly clear conditions expected. The
upper level ridge breaks down by early to mid week, bringing
increasing chance for showers and plenty of clouds to the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Skies are clearing this afternoon and evening as a dry cold front
presses south through the region. A large 1031mb Canadian surface
high builds in from the north tonight into Saturday. This will bring
ideal radiational cooling conditons overnight, with lows dropping
down into the 30s and low 40s in most locations. A frost advisory
remains in effect for northern Oneida County where confidence is
currently highest in seeing overnight lows in the lower to mid-30s.
Some patchy/areas of frost were added into the forecast grids for
other normally colder locations in Cortland/Chenango/Madison/Otsego
and Delaware counties. We will need to monitor temperature and dew
point trends closely in these counties as frost advisories may be
needed in confidence in more widespread frost increases. Outside of
these counties there could still be isolated instances of frost in
the coldest rural valley locations late tonight and early Saturday
morning...so this is something to keep in mind if you have sensitive
vegetation outdoors.
Saturday features plenty of sunshine all day, with highs in the
upper 60s and 70s and a light northeast wind. The center of the
surface high slides east over northern New England Saturday night,
allowing for some scattered high clouds to move in from the
southwest late at night. Winds remain light and variable overnight
and lows dip down into the upper 30s and 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
There will be increasing south-southeast flow on Sunday between the
surface high sliding east off the coast and incoming low over upper
Midwest/Rocky Mountains region. This will bring some breezy winds of
10-20 mph by Sunday afternoon...especially across the Finger Lakes
and Central Southern Tier of NY. Otherwise, Sunday features partly
to mostly sunny skies, dry and warm weather with highs well into the
70s expected. Increasing clouds and breezy south winds keep it
milder Sunday night. Can`t rule out a few light rain showers late at
night over the western portions of the CWA. A weak surface wave
moves through on Monday, without much jet support. Moisture does
increase in the low to mid levels so expect plenty of clouds around
through the day. There will be a slight chance to low end chance for
a few scattered rain showers as well...but QPF amounts are very
light. Temperatures should still rise well into the 70s by afternoon.
The weak frontal wave remains overhead Monday night, keeping
clouds a few showers in the forecast, along with warm overnight
lows once again.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
This period will feature a pattern change to more troughing and
unsettled weather across our portion of the Northeast. Tuesday will
see a rather flat trough and associated wave of low pressure move
across the region. This looks to give us our best chance of rain in
the coming days, with the NBM ensemble guidance continuing to trend
upwards with the PoPs into the likely range now. Overall, current
deterministic guidance is mainly depicting a light rain event for
our area, with QPF not being too substantial. The upper level trough
continues to be in place across the Mississippi, Ohio valley and
into the Northeast Wednesday and Thursday. This should keep our
weather unsettled with more clouds and shower chances each day.
Uncertainty grows beyond this time frame, with difference in the
upper level low/trough placement by the end of next week. Some
guidance has a cutoff low back to the south/west of our region with
upper level ridging sneaking over the top into our area. With the
uncertainty continued to stick to the NBM/Ensemble guidance for the
end of the long term with gave only a slight chance for showers,
otherwise partly sunny and warm conditions with highs still in the
upper 60s to mid-70s to end the upcoming work week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The MVFR ceilings are lingering at ITH but satellite shows skies
clearing out there, so VFR conditions are expected at all
terminals. With light winds and clear skies tonight, there will
likely be fog at ELM with restrictions falling down to at least
IFR. By around 13z, conditions will return to VFR. Winds will be
breezy this afternoon with gusts of 15 to 20 kts. By the late
evening hours, winds become light and variable and are expected
to remain that way through at least 18z Saturday.
Outlook...
Saturday Afternoon through Sunday...VFR, except typical valley
fog likely each late night/early morning for at least KELM.
Monday through Wednesday...Isolated to scattered showers with
occasional restrictions possible.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...BTL/MJM
AVIATION...AJG/BTL

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion