Metz, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

066
FXUS63 KIWX 221816
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
216 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A very active weather period will continue through Friday with
  numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.
- Flooding is not anticipated.
- High temperatures the rest of the week will be in the 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A positively tilted trof will settle south across the Upper
Great Lakes region. This system will bring numerous showers to
the forecast area as well as an occasional chance for a
thunderstorm at times. WPC rainfall amounts of generally 1.00"
to 1.50" are forecast through Friday. Heavier rainfall amounts
so far today (as of 1 AM EDT) have been generally 0.25" to 0.50"
over northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. A short break in the
heavier rain is expected before another upper level trof brings
more rain Tuesday. Moderate drought conditions (D1) covered
most of northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. Ft Wayne observed
rainfall amounts since August 1st has been less than 2 inches
(1.90) which is the 2nd driest in 130 years. So far, the rain
that has fallen has not been sufficient to improve drought
conditions.
While isolated to scattered showers are possible at time through
Tuesday morning, more organized rainfall should develop Tuesday
afternoon with the next impulse that moves across the area. The
new WPC forecast indicates around a half inch of additional rain
through 8pm Wednesday evening is forecast. Limited impacts are
expected with this precipitation. Very minor rises on some
rivers have been noted with this past round of rain. This next
round of rain into Wednesday night should do little to effect
river conditions.
Otherwise, dry weather if forecast from Friday night into early
next week. Temperatures are expected to be near normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
KFWA has residing on the NW fringe of an area of light rain/rain
showers that continues to stream ENE out of central IN. Radar
trends and models suggest that the site will see the rain
persist for a few more hours, but overall flight impacts have
been limited to some occasional MVFR vsbys. Will have a tempo
for a few hours to handle this. Signals all point towards
stratus and/or fog formation overnight, possibly lingering into
Tuesday with some potential for at least IFR cigs/vsby. Went a
bit more aggressive on impacts with potential for additional
changes in later issuances.
At KSBN, VFR conditions are in place and appear to remain
through at least the first half, if not entire period as they
remain just NW of the influence of the NE moving system. Did
add a small tempo group for some MVFR vsby impacts, but this may
be overdone based on models trends.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Fisher

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion