Midland, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

642
FXUS66 KMFR 151737
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1037 AM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.Updated AVIATION Discussion...
&&
.AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs...Lingering areas of MVFR ceilings in the
Umpqua Basin will gradually improve to VFR by 19-20z. VFR conditions
prevail for the remainder of the area and will do so through the TAF
period. This includes along the coast where offshore flow will keep
the marine stratus from reforming. Gusty north winds are expected
along the coast today, especially north of Cape Blanco where gusts
of 25-30 kts are expected this afternoon. /BR-y
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 624 AM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025/
DISCUSSION...Stratus has filled in the upper portion of the
Umpqua Valley, as well as the Camas Valley and much of the
Coquille Valley. There is also a patch in Klamath County between
Chemult and Chiloquin. This stratus will gradually dissipate this
morning, and will be more limited in area early Tuesday morning with
a pronounced warming and drying trend into Wednesday west of the
Cascade Crest and into Thursday on the east side.
Of particular note today will be gusty northerly winds at the
coast, and downslope warming into the mid 70s to lower 80s at and
near Brookings due to northeast winds. For most sites, it has been
9 days since high temperatures last reached the values expected
today. That may be enough time to think that the season had
flipped to Fall, but temperatures are expected to be near or above
normal for most of the next ten days. There is good model
agreement for today into Thursday.
The spread in model solutions does widen pretty abruptly on Friday
regarding the respective influence upon our weather from a weak
trough moving southeast out of the Gulf of Alaska and an at least
slightly stronger trough moving north to northeast across northern
California. The NBM blended solution leans toward the ECMWF
solution of a weaker, less sharp trough taking a more eastward
track across central California. But, still leaves open the
possibility of a weak shortwave or two in the southwest flow aloft
to warrant adding a slight chance of thunderstorms to the Friday
afternoon/evening forecast. Compared to Thursday, this would
result in much less cooling on Friday than indicated by the GFS
solution, or even very slight warming. For the weekend, the
differences are less dramatic. At least modest cooling is likely,
with inland temperatures potentially remaining above normal with a
seasonable, zonal pattern of a weak and weakening trough focused
on Washington and northern Oregon.
MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Monday, September 15, 2025... A
thermal trough will continue gusty northerly winds and steep seas
through early Tuesday morning. Below advisory seas are expected
Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon.
Then gusty northerly winds with possible gale gusts south of Cape
Blanco are forecast to build Wednesday evening into Thursday
evening. Uncertainty in the forecast increases on Friday with a
front likely to disrupt or at least weaken the northerly flow
pattern into the weekend. -DW
FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 AM PDT Monday, September 15, 2025...An
upper level ridge builds in and a thermal trough develops along the
coast today. This will induce a period of easterly/offshore flow and
bring about a sharp warming and drying trend through Wednesday. East
to northeast winds over the ridges will continue into mid-morning,
but recoveries will remain very good. Winds will not be as strong
Tonight/Tuesday morning but recoveries really drop into the moderate
to locally poor range. Currently, it looks like recoveries are
lowest on Tuesday morning, but as drier air spreads eastward, more
areas will see moderate to locally poor recoveries on Wednesday
morning as well. Current guidance bottoms out RH recoveries in the
30-40% range (down to 25% for some of the higher peaks), with winds
gusting to 15-20 mph. This doesn`t quite reach criteria for
watch/warning products, and typically it needs to be at least a few
nights in a row to get the RHs to really drop low enough. As such,
we`ll be maintaining a headline for this event in the Fire Weather
Planning Forecast (FWFMFR). Meanwhile, daytime humidities will trend
lower with teens/low 20s common across the region on Tuesday. Min
RHs will also trend higher on Wednesday as the flow becomes onshore
again.
Another upper level trough will approach the region on Wednesday and
this may result in some enhanced afternoon breezes for inland areas
with temperatures trending less warm Wednesday into Thursday. There
could be another round of northeasterly winds Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, but recoveries will continue the improving trend
compared to early in the week. The approaching trough looks to stall
offshore in response to low pressure moving northward along the
California coast. This is a fairly new development in the models,
but this pattern could bring the return of thunderstorms to the
forecast for Friday. It`s far too early and there is plenty of
uncertainty in the details to pinpoint timing and location of
potential thunderstorms, so have left them out of the forecast for
the time being. Will see how future model runs evolve before adding
details to the forecast, but this will be a time period worth
watching. /BR-y
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion