Moccasin, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

992
FXUS65 KTFX 160138
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
Issued by National Weather Service Glasgow MT
738 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unsettled with near average temperatures expected today and
   Tuesday.
 - Warmer and drier weather returns for Thursday and Friday.
 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return for Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 128 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
Broad upper level toughing over the area today has resulted
noticeably cooler temperatures across the area compared to
yesterday, with many locations around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than
they were yesterday at this time. With the upper level low around,
expect a mix of clouds and sun this afternoon, with a few rain
showers developing later this afternoon and evening. This trough
will shift eastward a bit overnight tonight and Tuesday, but
northerly flow will keep us on the cool side on Tuesday.
Upper level ridging building into the area on Wednesday will
bring an end to the showers and will allow temperatures to climb
back above average a little bit for the second half of the week.
The warmth will peak on Saturday as southerly flow develops ahead
of our next upper level trough, which will bring renewed chances
for showers along with some breezy winds for the weekend and early
next week.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Low chance for heavy downpours through Tuesday:
As our upper level trough continues to slowly push through the
area today and Tuesday, expect a few showers and possibly
thunderstorms to develop, especially later during the afternoon
hours today and Tuesday. For the most part, these showers and
storms should not be overly heavy today since they will be driven
primarily by large scale lift, but model soundings tomorrow
afternoon suggest some convective instability will develop
tomorrow afternoon as daytime heating contrasts with cold air
advection occurring aloft. This could bring some localized heavy
rainfall, which could result in some ponding of water in low lying
or poor drainage areas.
Winds Saturday night - early next week:
As our next upper level ridge breaks down over the weekend, zonal
upper level flow along with a developing lee trough will result in
the development of a modest pressure gradient that results in some
gusty winds across the area Sunday and Monday. While winds dont
look overly strong, the NBM is currently showing generally a
25-40% chance of 45 mph across most of the area north of I-90.
While not unseasonable, it will be a noted change from the
relatively light winds we have been experiencing as of late.
Ludwig
&&
.AVIATION...
16/00Z TAF Period
A low pressure system will continue to bring scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity for much of the TAF period, most widespread
along the Continental Divide and Southwest Montana tonight and
Tuesday morning. MVFR and lower conditions and mountain
obscuration will be most widespread between 16/09 and 16/18Z over
Southwest Montana due precipitation, low stratus, and patchy fog.
- RCG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  74  47  79 /  60  20   0   0
CTB  49  73  44  78 /  40  10   0   0
HLN  50  72  48  78 /  60  40   0   0
BZN  44  67  43  74 /  70  60  10   0
WYS  32  62  31  68 /  30  40  10   0
DLN  40  66  40  72 /  20  20   0   0
HVR  52  77  48  77 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  48  69  46  74 /  70  60  20  10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion