Monte Nido, California Weather Forecast Discussion

351
FXUS66 KLOX 281619
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
919 AM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...28/855 AM.
Cooler than normal conditions will persist through next week, but
temperatures should rise a little starting Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible over the mountains and deserts this
afternoon. Small chance of light rain around the Central Coast
late Monday into Tuesday. Areas of drizzle possible each morning
through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...28/917 AM.
***UPDATE***
Marine layer remains at least 4000 this morning all the way up the
coast. Not quite as much drizzle this morning as yesterday but
still pretty damp near the foothills. Another slow or no clearing
day for coast and valleys with temps 6-12 degrees below normal
inland and 1-3 below normal near the coast. SST`s in the high 60s
are helping to moderate the temps near the coast.
Soundings locally still indicating a fair amount of instability
today with lapse rates between 7 and 8c and mucape between 1000
and 1500j/kg. The upper low has finally exited the state after a
week plus vacation in southern California, and even though PW`s
have lowered still think there will be some isolated showers and
storms this afternoon over the mountains. The hi res models are
showing storm initiation in the usual areas, namely in the Frazier
Park area between 1 and 2pm this afternoon and slightly later
across the San Gabriels. Storms won`t be as strong as yesterday
and rain amounts won`t likely pose any flash flooding concerns,
but brief heavy rain is possible with any storms.
***From Previous Discussion***
A low pressure system currently just west of the Aleutian Islands
has spawned two frontal bands that will march down the West
Coast. All projections have these bands fizzling out by the time
they reach Point Conception Monday or Tuesday, but 10-30% of the
ensembles produce some light rain on the Central Coast. Added some
slight chance wording back to the forecast as a result. Any
amounts will be very light with minor impacts.
The marine layer and inland low cloud intrusion remain deep and
expansive through Tuesday. Expect random patches of drizzle
wetting roads anywhere, with some hilly areas seeing
accumulations. With the fronts approaching, the Central Coast
might see enhanced drizzle Monday or Tuesday.
All of this adds up to temperatures staying well below normal. No
major wind concerns through at least Tuesday.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...28/331 AM.
Dry conditions are likely Wednesday through the following weekend,
with any chances of rain very minimal at this point. Temperatures
will increase a few degrees as high pressure from Mexico noses
northward, but temperatures will remain below normal. Some
moderate Sundowners will form each night. The combination of those
winds and the ridge just to the east should shrink the marine
layer and force it to return to more normal operations.
&&
.AVIATION...28/1605Z.
At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 4000 feet deep. The top
of the inversion was 5600 feet with a temperature of 15 degrees
Celsius.
For the 18Z TAF package, high confidence in desert TAFs, but only
moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. Lower confidence for
these sites is due to uncertainties in the behavior of the marine
layer. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of
current forecasts.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecast. There is a 20%
chance of an easterly wind component of 8 knots 08Z-16Z.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of
MVFR CIGs 18Z-21Z. Timing of return of MVFR CIGs tonight could be
+/- 3 hours of current 09Z forecast.
&&
.MARINE...28/906 AM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For
Wednesday and Thursday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level
winds and seas.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On
Thursday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds in the
afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern
Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
SCA levels. The only exception will be the western half of the
Santa Barbara Channel with a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds on
Wednesday and Thursday, during the late afternoon and evening
hours.
Through this Wednesday, a southerly swell of 3 to 6 feet will
impact the coastal waters and may produce issues for exposed south
facing harbors.
&&
.BEACHES...28/202 AM.
A moderately-long period southerly swell will develop across the
coastal waters today and last into Wednesday, generated by
Hurricane Narda. Hazardous rip currents and elevated surf are
likely for south-facing beaches, especially across Los Angeles and
Ventura Counties, as well as Avila Beach and Port San Luis for
the Central Coasts. Additionally, particularly vulnerable south-
facing beaches may see shallow coastal flooding over normally dry
beach areas.
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for all exposed south-
facing beaches for today through Wednesday. Surf of 4 to 7 feet
is expected, with local max sets up to 8 feet for the Central
Coast.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon
      for zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Kittell
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...Sirard/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...RK
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion