Moody, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

309
FXUS64 KBMX 230748
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
248 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 224 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2025
- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for much of central
  Alabama Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
- Medium to high chance (40 to 70 percent) of greater than 1 inch
   of rain Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2025
We will have one mostly dry weather day in central Alabama today,
as models indicate that most convective activity should stay to
our north. As we head into Wednesday, however, things begin to
change. An upper level longwave trough is forecast to develop
across the eastern half of the CONUS, with several shortwaves
rounding the base of the trough and swinging across the mid-south
and southeastern states. Lift associated with these shortwaves,
and low level convergence provided by the attendant surface cold
front, should lead to a significant increase in shower and
thunderstorm coverage across our area, especially by Wednesday
afternoon and lasting through Thursday afternoon. Will have to
watch mesoscale developments ahead of the front for severe weather
potential both Wednesday and Thursday. There`s bound to be some
pockets of instability around during peak heating Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening, with enough mid-level shear to
possibly help organize storms into line segments. Will also note
the Marginal Risk posted by SPC for both days, with any severe
threat coming in the form of strong to damaging wind gusts.
/61/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Monday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2025
Any lingering showers should clear out of central Alabama Thursday
night, as the cold front pushes east of the area. We will have to
see how long that dry period lasts. Operational runs of the
global models are now starting to show some form of upper level
low lingering around the southeast states late in the weekend into
early next week. The forecast is dry for now, but I wouldn`t be
surprised if we later need to add some POPs for showers near the
tail end of this 7-day forecast period.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2025
Another 24 hours of VFR conditions on tap for central Alabama
terminals. Just a mixture of high clouds (at or above 12K ft), and
scattered cumulus. Any showers or storms today should stay well
north of the northernmost of our TAF sites. Winds at or below
7 kts.
/61/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mostly dry weather is forecast for central Alabama today, with
MinRH values expected to stay above 30 percent. An approaching
cold front will enhanced rain chances to the area starting
Wednesday afternoon, but especially Wednesday night through
Thursday afternoon. A return to dry weather is forecast as high
pressure builds back in over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     90  67  91  68 /  10  10  30  70
Anniston    90  70  91  70 /   0   0  20  50
Birmingham  92  72  92  70 /   0   0  30  70
Tuscaloosa  93  71  91  70 /   0   0  40  70
Calera      93  70  93  70 /   0   0  20  60
Auburn      91  70  91  70 /   0   0   0  20
Montgomery  93  70  94  71 /   0   0  10  30
Troy        92  68  92  70 /   0   0   0  20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION.../61/

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion