Moorefield, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

319
FXUS63 KLBF 201155
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
655 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy areas of fog are expected this morning.
- Next chance for rainfall will come Monday through Wednesday
  morning.
- Highs will average somewhat below normal today, moderating Sunday
  and Monday. Tuesday and beyond should see a return to
  somewhat below normal temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 506 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Issued a special weather statement for southwest Nebraska. Fog
is patchy but is dense where it is occurring. No widespread 1/4
mile or less, so opted for a special weather statement
detailing the rapid fluctuations in visibility as the patches
of fog are encountered.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Models have backed off considerably on the fog potential this
morning. Time lagged RAP and HRRR continue to show far
southwest Nebraska having the higher risk of some locally dense
fog, but across the rest of the area the fog should stay more
patchy. Grant Airport observation has been fluctuating and
occasionally has dropped to 1/4 mile. This has not been
consistent, however. Imperial never has dropped below 2 miles as
of 3:30am CDT. We`ll continue to monitor but no plans for any
type of dense fog headlines at the moment. Otherwise, the rest
of the day is looking to be a mainly dry day. Surface high
pressure will migrate eastward into eastern Nebraska by this
afternoon. Return southerly low-level flow will gradually
develop as this occurs. A few of the CAMs bring some weak
convection into portions of the Panhandle and far southwest
Nebraska tonight. Confidence is not high enough to add to the
forecast at this time due to just a handful showing this
possibility. We`ll continue to monitor the potential.
Attention then turn to Sunday. A warm front lifts northward through
the area with a return of lower to mid 60s dew points. As highs warm
into the upper 70s and lower 80s, a narrow ribbon of decent
instability develops from north to south across western Nebraska. A
weak surface trough will be located across far western Nebraska. It
appears that overall weak low-level convergence along the boundary
and little upper level forcing should keep conditions dry. If a
storm does manage to develop near the surface trough it could become
strong, so we`ll have to monitor this potential.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The first of next week looks rather unsettled. A shortwave will drop
southeastward from the northern Rockies and across the central
plains. This will bring an increasing threat for showers and
thunderstorms to the area Monday afternoon through Wednesday
morning. Severe weather potential seems low at this time. Any threat
would be Monday into Monday evening with decent instability, however
the overall shear is weak. Environment could support a few strong
storms, but the severe threat as mentioned is low.
The week will start off mild with highs in the upper 70s and lower
80s on Monday. This is about normal for this time of year. A cold
frontal passage will cool things down considerably Tuesday,
with highs in the 60s. Ridging aloft will then begin to build
across the area Wednesday through the end of the week.
Temperatures will gradually moderate as this occurs, with highs
back into the mid 70s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Patchy LIFR conditions and fog will continue through mid-morning
then lift across southwest Nebraska. Otherwise VFR conditions
will prevail with mid and high level cloudiness expected. Winds
will gradually become south to southeast at 5-10 kts this
afternoon and tonight.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Taylor
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion