Moose River, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

229
FXUS61 KBUF 191758
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
158 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cool, canadian surface high pressure will bring clear skies and
light winds tonight that will allow for areas of frost to form east
of Lake Ontario. Dry weather will persist through the weekend as
this surface high pressure moves through the eastern Great Lakes.
The next frontal system will bring a few showers Monday, becoming
more widespread Tuesday and Tuesday night as the front moves
through.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cool Canadian surface high pressure is nosing down across our region
this afternoon and overnight, with its axis centered upon the North
Country.
Subsidence and drier air along with calm winds with this
feature will allow for excellent radiational cooling conditions
tonight with temperatures dipping down into the upper 30s to mid 40s
across WNY, and low to mid 30s east of Lake Ontario where a frost
advisory will remain in place through tonight for the North
Country.
Fair weather will persist tomorrow through tomorrow night with this
surface high pressure moving through. On the back side of the
surface high, mid and high level clouds will begin to increase
tomorrow night, though these clouds may just linger west of the
North Country enough to allow for the return of frost east of Lake
Ontario.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure ridging will continue to shift into the northwestern
Atlantic and break down early next week as a dynamic, positively
tilted longwave trough takes shape across ON/QC and the Great Lakes
region. Deepening southwest flow across the Mississippi Valley will
steadily increase the amount of moisture transport into the eastern
Great Lakes as several embedded waves of low pressure take aim at
the region. Following a warmer and slightly more humid day Sunday,
this pattern will bring a few opportunities for rain and possibly a
few isolated thunderstorms through Tuesday. With already weak
synoptic support further diminishing with eastward extent, the
greatest rain chances/coverage are expected to be west of the
Genesee Valley. Uncertainty quickly grows by Tuesday as model
guidance further diverges on the track of a more substantial wave of
sfc low pressure moving into the region, though this feature should
bring overall more widespread rain chances.
While the rainfall will be largely welcomed with minimal
hydrological or severe wx concerns, potential relief from the D0/D1
drought conditions appear to be minor. LREF probabilities of total
rainfall >0.5" through Tue afternoon range from about 50-70% across
WNY to 20-40% across the North Country, while for rainfall >1" these
figures are only about 15-30% (WNY) and 

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion