Mosheim, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

454
FXUS64 KFWD 291843
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
143 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thick high cloud cover will continue to spread across the region
  today. No precipitation is expected.
- Quiet weather will continue through next weekend with near to
  above normal temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today Through Tuesday Afternoon/
An upper-level shortwave that is currently moving through
Colorado/New Mexico will continue to transit east into the
Southern Plains over the short term period. This will spread high-
level moisture across the region through tomorrow, leading to
mostly cloudy skies. Since cloud cover is not expected until
closer to peak heating, high temperatures today will still be able
to get to the mid-upper 80s.
This shortwave is also spreading strong lift as it passes, which
is culminating in the elevated precipitation echoes currently seen
on radar across the Panhandle and West Texas (and eventually our
area). Unfortunately, not much if anything is expected to reach
the surface. The moisture out ahead of this shortwave is in the
mid-levels, generally around 450-550 mb (per both current MAF/LUB
ACARS and forecast HRRR/RAP soundings). In forecast soundings
across North and Central Texas, the sub-cloud layer is very dry
which will promote evaporation of most raindrops before reaching
the ground, resulting in virga. We cannot cancel out a rain drop
or two, but that will be the exception and not the rule. We will
continue to carry a dry forecast through Tuesday.
The shortwave will continue to move overnight through Tuesday,
shifting the cloud cover east. Cloudy skies will keep morning
temperatures warmer in the 60s to low 70s. Skies will clear out on
Tuesday, with light winds continuing and highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Evening Onward/
The shortwave will exit to the east midweek, with an upper-level
ridge nudging northward into Texas late this week. Quiet
conditions are expected for our region the rest of the forecast
period. Morning lows will be in the 60s to around 70, and
afternoon highs in the 80s and 90s. Going beyond the 7 day
forecast period, troughing over the western CONUS will allow
multiple shortwaves to eject towards the Continental Divide,
promoting the potential for a more unsettled pattern mid next
week. We`ll keep an eye on that potential and relay more details
as it comes within the scope of the forecast.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
Winds will generally be E-NE, but will occasionally come in as
variable directions over the next 24-30 hours. High cloud cover
will continue to increase throughout the rest of the day, with
overcast skies expected late afternoon through much of the period.
Overnight into Tuesday morning winds may shift more N-NE with
speeds remaining below 5 kts, before returning to a more E
direction. ACT will remain N-NE through Tuesday morning.
Prater
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  70  89  67  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                86  67  90  64  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               86  66  86  61  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              86  64  87  61  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            87  66  87  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              88  71  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             87  66  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           88  69  90  66  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              86  64  90  62  91 /   0   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       87  64  90  61  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion