Mount Tabor, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

204
FXUS64 KLZK 180546
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
-Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue nearly every day
into the middle of next week
-Best chances for seeing more scattered/numerous showers/storms will
come Fri
-Hot/humid conditions will continue into Thu...then somewhat cooler
conditions are expected late this week into the middle of next week
-Organized severe weather is not expected at this time...but an
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each day
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Not much change in the forecast from previous days. Continue to see
potential for diurnally driven convection each day through Thu
afternoon...with slight to low end chance POPs forecast. Isolated to
widely scattered convection will be possible each afternoon...with
the overall threat for seeing SVR Wx remaining low. However...like
in previous days...there will be some potential for an isolated
strong to briefly SVR storm due to high afternoon CAPE. Locally
heavy rainfall...gusty winds...and hail will be the primary threats
with the strongest activity.
Highs through Thu will remain well above normal in the 80s and 90s.
However...an upper shortwave will pass ESE over the NRN portions of
AR on Fri into Fri night...bringing better chances for more
scattered convection on Fri into Fri night. Given this upper
shortwave will weaken as it approaches...will continue with the
potential for organized strong to SVR Wx to remain low. Again...this
doesn`t rule out any isolated strong/SVR convection however.
Flow aloft will become more persistently NW by the weekend into
early next week. Additional upper waves will pass over the region in
this NW flow aloft...with some continued POPs forecast through the
end of the forecast. In fact...there are some indications a closed
upper low may move into the region by the middle of next week. This
will mostly likely keep temps cooler than in the past week...at
least a bit closer to normal for mid/late Sep. Details on best
precip chances will be a bit more uncertain however...given timing
differences of the upper low moving into the region...and what upper
waves may pass overhead and when.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Mostly dry and calm conditions are expected to prevail overnight
under high pressure. This will bring VFR conditions to all
terminals overnight. Winds are expected to remain mostly light and
variable.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     96  67  89  64 /  20  20  40  10
Camden AR         95  67  90  64 /  20  20  40   0
Harrison AR       88  63  83  61 /  50  50  50  10
Hot Springs AR    94  67  89  64 /  30  30  50  10
Little Rock   AR  94  69  88  67 /  30  20  30  10
Monticello AR     96  69  93  66 /  20  20  30   0
Mount Ida AR      92  65  89  64 /  30  40  50  10
Mountain Home AR  93  64  88  62 /  30  40  40  10
Newport AR        96  68  91  65 /  20  10  30  10
Pine Bluff AR     96  68  90  65 /  20  20  30   0
Russellville AR   94  67  88  65 /  30  40  40  10
Searcy AR         95  67  90  64 /  20  20  30  10
Stuttgart AR      95  69  91  66 /  20  20  20  10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...73

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion