Mozart, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

632
FXUS61 KPBZ 301137
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
737 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected through
the week with high pressure in control.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and above normal temperatures continue warm
- Patchy fog but generally not dense
-------------------------------------------------------------
Latest forecast soundings do not show the most favorable
hydrolapse for dense fog development this morning, but given
saturated low- levels patchy fog is definitely not out of the
question this morning given current dewpoint depressions and
light winds. Eastern CONUS ridging will remain dominant today.
With minimal change in the overall synoptic pattern and upper
cloud coverage associated with TS Imelda, today will be very
similar to what was observed Monday. Cloud coverage has resulted
in relatively mild lows this morning over western PA and north
WV. Current observed values are running near 5 degrees warmer
than the same time early yesterday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Gradual clearing this evening
- Dry conditions continue
- Slightly cooler Wed/Thur
----------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles remain consistent and show good agreement with ridging
remaining in place over the eastern CONUS. This will maintain
dry conditions throughout the period. A slight decrease in
heights and northerly flow will decrease temperatures slightly,
but they will still be above normal during the afternoons. With
clearing skies and light winds, diurnal ranges will be above
normal and lows will be dipping below normal climatological
values during the morning hours with efficient radiational
cooling. In collaboration with surrounding offices, have blended
in 25h percentile NBM guidance for both dewpoints and MinTs
given the current regime. Looking back to earlier in the month
under a similar setup with calm clear nights, this was the clear
winner as far as ensemble guidance / blends went.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- High confidence in warm and dry conditions prevailing.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The ensembles remain consistent in showing the broad eastern
CONUS ridge remaining through the weekend, maintaining dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Latest ensemble
guidance does not show any chance of precipitation until Tuesday
next week, with a 20% chance or less during any 6hr period
Tuesday or Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A brief period of MVFR/IFR is expected for isolated ports in fog
this morning before clearing is expected by 13Z. High clouds are
expected to generally pull south throughout the day Tuesday,
replaced by a light NE wind.
Dry advection around high pressure should keep precipitation
chances away for the rest of the period and tamper fog chances
apart from isolated valley spots on Wednesday morning, though
no mentions were included for now with low confidence.
.OUTLOOK....
Outside of patchy morning river valley fog, VFR is expected
through Saturday under high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...Milcarek

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion