Mud Lake, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

107
FXUS65 KPIH 191725
AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1125 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Average to Above Average Temperatures Continue Through the
  Weekend
- Virga Possible Today, Although A Few Sprinkles Possible
- Showers and Storms Over the Weekend, Especially Sunday
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1233 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Early morning satellite imagery shows mid/high level clouds surging
north across the Great Basin and these will move across our area
throughout the day today. Not expecting much in the way of
precipitation, if any, with these clouds although some virga,
perhaps a sprinkle, seems plausible. Hi-res CAMs aren`t overly
excited with this potential either and focus any of this activity
across the south hills or maybe into the Raft River region. Better
precipitation chances appear to be on tap for the area during the
weekend, especially Sunday. More on that below. As far as
temperatures are concerned today, increased cloud cover won`t have
much impact on them and they`ll be very similar to what we saw on
Thursday, perhaps just a touch warmer. That being said, widespread
70s today with maybe some lower 80s from around Pocatello into the
Magic Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
We should see some actual rain producing storms over the
weekend. Our Blend of Models follows this pattern, with a better
chance of moderate to locally heavy rainfall Sunday. Any pockets
of moderate/brief heavy rain will be heavily dependent on where
stronger showers or storms develop, in other words...maxing out
on the potential for sunshine and instability. The Blend might
be a bit slow in recognizing the possibility of storms Saturday
afternoon and evening across the Magic Valley and central
mountains. It has less than 10% there, but higher resolution
models are trending toward at least isolated coverage in those
areas. We will leave things as they are for now, and what to see
where things are headed. After that, the forecast becomes quite
a bit murky. The Blend of Models and ECMWF want to popped the
ridge right over the top of us early next week, and dry things
out. It actually follows the prior idea of a blocking pattern
over the lower 48. The GFS has decided to drop a closed low
right over Idaho early next week for continued showers and
storms. That only fits about of the 30% of the clusters, or
close enough to potentially fit into that type of pattern. It is
a new wrinkle obviously. Since we are headed into Fall, expect
to see more chaos in the extended like this. Temperatures do ebb
and flow a bit based on cloud cover and/or influence of a ridge
or low. We are still looking at temperatures at/just above
average either way.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Despite the increased cloud cover, all CIGS remain well above VFR
thresholds for today. There is a non-zero chance to see a brief
shower this afternoon, but very dry humidities at the lower levels
of the atmosphere would more likely lead to a brief virga shower or
sprinkle at best. Confidence is extremely low, but the best chance
would occur at BYI, PIH and DIJ this afternoon and early evening.
Winds remain light throughout the forecast period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1219 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Ridge of high pressure weakens into the weekend, allowing for some
moisture to shift into Idaho. There may be enough instability to
generate a few showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon
and evening, mainly impacting 427 and 413, though some may creep
into 425 and 410 as well. Moisture is very limited, so the
confidence is low, and whatever can develop will likely be
extremely limited in precipitation potential. Virga or a
sprinkle at best is the far more likely scenario today.
Precipitation chances look slightly better for Saturday across
the southern zones, then increase to isolated to scattered
coverage for most areas Sunday. Precipitation potential peaks on
Sunday, as most storms should be able to approach or exceed a
wetting rain, albeit briefly. Moving into the week, Monday and
Tuesday trend drier under a developing blocking pattern across
the southwest US. There are some differences in the models
regarding how the developing ridge wants to evolve, and thus
some downstream differences in potential breakdown of that
pattern late in the week.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...DMH

NWS PIH Office Area Forecast Discussion