Mule Creek, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

623
FXUS64 KEPZ 210459
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1059 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1007 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Low rain chances today with no weather impacts with above
   normal temperatures in the afternoon.
- Minor impacts due to isolated showers and thunderstorms over
   mountain areas Monday and Tuesday with above normal day time
   temperatures continuing until a cold front moves through the
   region on Wednesday.
- Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread Wednesday
   through next weekend with impacts from localized flooding near
   stronger storms expected by the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1007 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Despite a drier more stable air mass moving into the region
Saturday afternoon, isolated strong thunderstorms were still able
to develop in the mid to late afternoon. Dry conditions are still
expected for Sunday with local area remaining on the dry side of
the ridge axis. Additionally, the drier more stable air mass will
become better established over the area. Sunday should see mostly
sunny skies with light winds. Temperatures will continue to be
above normal in the afternoon with lower to mid 90s in the
lowlands.
Our dry period will be be brief as moisture and a chance for
showers and thunderstorms returns to the region on Monday and
continues through the rest of the week. The area will remain under
a high pressure ridge axis on Monday, however there is a complex
weather pattern across the country with three lows and a trough
occurring at the same time. The low off the California coast will
funnel moisture in our direction on Monday. At the same time
another low in the Upper Rockies will drop south toward the
region. The combined effects of these systems will generate
scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern and central
New Mexico by Monday afternoon. The weather pattern appears
vigorous enough to allow isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development to occur over Southern New Mexico as well. Storms over
the mountains will occur by mid day on Monday with some spreading
into the lowlands by late afternoon and into the evening. Rain
amounts should not be strong these storms but some small hail is
likely.
The weather pattern will continue to be very complex heading into
Tuesday and Wednesday. The two closed lows and the high pressure
system near our area will morph into an omega blocking pattern by
Wednesday. Also, the local area remains stuck between much more
moist air pooling to the south and drier air to the north. Throw
in forcing from the large low on the west coast and you have a
unsettled weather pattern for the region with a continuing chance
of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Coverage and intensity of
storms remains uncertain with the forecast being a low confidence
one. Rain chances on Wednesday will be enhanced by a cold front
pushing into the area from the northeast. Timing and location of
the front remain uncertain at this time.
For the latter part of the week, forecast models have coalesced
around a highly amplified Omega blocking pattern over the country.
This puts the local area into a more favorable pattern for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening
through next Saturday. The blocking pattern will stall the west
coast low, allowing it to transport additional moisture into the
local area to fuel more precipitation for the region. That being
said, a slight shift in the pattern could turn the pattern into a
more of a drier pattern, so the long range forecast remains
uncertain and low confidence at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1007 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions expected through the valid period. Isolated
thunderstorms may occur after 18Z Sunday for the higher mountains
west of the continental divide. Area TAF sites should be
unaffected. No ceilings expected with FEW-SCT 120-150 in the
afternoon. Winds will be light (less than 10 knots) and out of
the west or southwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1031 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Quiet fire weather conditions for the next 5 days. We will see
lower rain chances today and Sunday with min RH`s both days
ranging from 20 to 30% in the lowlands to 40 to 50% in area
mountains. For the first of next week, the models are beginning to
trend to a more active forecast with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms each day through the end of the week. Min RH`s next
week look to stay at or above 30% for the entire area. Winds this
weekend and next week will stay well below critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  91  70  94  70 /  20  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            85  61  88  61 /  20   0   0   0
Las Cruces               86  62  90  63 /  20  10   0   0
Alamogordo               86  63  89  64 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               65  46  67  48 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    85  62  89  64 /  20   0   0  10
Silver City              81  57  83  60 /  10   0  10  10
Deming                   90  61  93  63 /  20   0   0  10
Lordsburg                86  63  88  65 /  10   0  10  10
West El Paso Metro       88  68  91  69 /  20  10   0   0
Dell City                89  61  92  61 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             90  67  94  66 /  20   0   0   0
Loma Linda               81  62  84  64 /  20  10   0   0
Fabens                   89  65  92  65 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             86  64  90  65 /  20  10   0   0
White Sands HQ           87  65  90  67 /  20  10   0   0
Jornada Range            86  62  88  63 /  20  10   0   0
Hatch                    89  61  92  62 /  20  10   0   0
Columbus                 89  63  92  66 /  10   0   0  10
Orogrande                85  62  88  62 /  10  10   0   0
Mayhill                  76  52  79  54 /  20   0   0   0
Mescalero                77  51  79  53 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 74  51  77  52 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  79  50  82  53 /  20   0   0  10
Hillsboro                85  60  89  61 /  20   0   0  10
Spaceport                85  59  87  60 /  20  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             81  50  83  54 /  10   0  10  10
Hurley                   84  58  86  60 /  10   0  10  10
Cliff                    87  58  89  61 /  10   0  10  10
Mule Creek               84  56  85  59 /  10   0  10  10
Faywood                  84  59  86  61 /  10   0   0  10
Animas                   87  63  89  65 /  10   0  10  10
Hachita                  86  61  89  63 /  10   0  10  10
Antelope Wells           87  63  89  63 /  20  10  10  10
Cloverdale               83  61  85  61 /  20  10  10  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...04-Lundeen

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion