Murdock, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

189
FXUS63 KICT 161039
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
539 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few isolated showers/thunderstorms today. Most locations
  will remain dry. Severe weather not expected.
- Off-and-on scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms late
  tonight through Thursday night. Isolated severe weather
  possible, along with locally heavy rainfall and isolated
  flooding concerns.
- Off-and-on active pattern could linger from this weekend into
  at least early next week, but there remains quite a bit of
  uncertainty.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
PRECIPITATION:
TODAY...Similar to yesterday, will likely see a few isolated
showers/thunderstorms across portions of central and eastern Kansas
anytime between about 11 AM and 9 PM, as a moist/unstable and
uncapped airmass remains in place across the region, and large scale
ascent persists ahead of a deep upper trough approaching from the
west-northwest. Most locations will remain dry. Widespread severe
weather is unlikely given rather weak deep layer shear, although
moderate to strong instability may support isolated instances of
very small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...The deep upper trough
approaching from the west along with an associated slow-moving
frontal zone moving through from the northwest will support off-and-
on scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms across the region
late tonight through Thursday night. While a handful of marginally
severe thunderstorms are possible throughout this time period
(especially during the afternoon-evening hours), most activity
should remain below severe levels given a limited combination of
buoyancy and deep layer effective shear. Locally heavy rainfall
is likely, which could support isolated flooding concerns.
Model consensus supports widespread rainfall amounts of 0.25 to
0.50 inches through Thursday night, with localized 1-2+ inch
amounts possible.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...While there remains some
uncertainty, deterministic consensus supports a continued off-and-on
active pattern Friday through at least early next week, as various
shortwaves progress over the region within progressive west-
northwest flow aloft. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in
the coming days.
TEMPERATURES:
Seasonably warm temperatures look to persist today, with forecast
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. From Wednesday through Friday,
increased precipitation chances and decreasing atmospheric thickness
will support a slight cool down, with many locations in the 70s to
low 80s for daytime highs. By the weekend, temperatures should get
back to seasonal normals in the 80s, as both thickness and southerly
flow increase across Mid-America.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Can`t rule out a few isolated showers/thunderstorms anywhere
across central and eastern Kansas late this morning through
early to mid-evening, within a continued moist/unstable and
weakly capped airmass. The strongest activity will be capable
of isolated gusty winds and brief heavy rain. Most locations
will remain storm-free. Chances are 20 percent or lower, so did
not include a mention in the 12z TAFs.
For later tonight, chances for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase from the west-northwest
ahead of a strong storm system. The strongest activity will be
capable of small hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rain.
Covered this threat with PROB30 groups for now in all TAFs
except CNU. Later shifts will likely need to consider TEMPO or
even prevailing groups to cover the TSRA threat later tonight,
especially at RSL-GBD, and possibly SLN-HUT-ICT as well.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion