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Muskego, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

753
FXUS63 KMKX 210907
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 407 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (20 to 30 percent) are forecast today into Monday.

- Mild temperatures are expected today, with near normal temperatures into the start of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... Issued 407 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Today through Monday:

A broad troughing pattern across the region will persist today through Monday. A decent amount of moisture will linger through this period, allowing a chance for showers and a few storms at times. Overall forcing is on the weaker side, so kept precip chances under 50%, as showers/storms are not anticipated to be widespread. The better chance for thunderstorms will come during the afternoon today and tomorrow when daytime heating contributes to higher instability. Despite the anticipated clouds and scattered showers, highs will still be mainly in the mid 70s today and tomorrow, a couple degrees above normal for this time of the year.

DDV

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.LONG TERM... Issued 407 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Monday Night through Saturday:

Some weak warm air advection and moisture advection may linger Monday night, before an inverted trough axis shifts through the area Tuesday and to the southeast Tuesday night. The area remains in cyclonic flow aloft, with various vorticity maxima rotating through the area at times.

Forecast soundings are showing enough low level moisture and tall skinny mean layer CAPE Monday night into Tuesday night to continue to bring mainly 20 to 30 percent chances for showers and thunderstorms. No all day washouts are expected, as any activity should be scattered at best. Temperatures look to remain mild Tuesday, with highs into the middle 70s. Lows should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s Monday night, and a little cooler Tuesday night.

It appears that there may be a closed 500 mb low that develops somewhere over or to the southeast of the region by Wednesday into latter portions of the week. There is a fair amount of uncertainty in where this may occur, and its effect on the forecast during this time. The latest 500 mb Cluster Analysis products are generally favoring the closed low developing to the south of the region later in the week.

For now, will lean toward the NBM and keep small chances (around or under 20 percent) for showers going for now. There could be a few thunderstorms, if enough instability develops. It may also end up dry if the southern solution of the 500 mb low development occurs. Temperatures may trend more toward seasonal normal values, especially if the upper low develops over the region.

Wood

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.AVIATION... Issued 407 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Patchy fog will be possible through early this morning and again tonight, with mainly VFR conditions expected otherwise. Scattered showers and a few storms will be possible again today and tonight, with the best chance for thunder during the afternoon hours. Light southerly winds will prevail today and tonight, likely continuing into Monday.

DDV

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.MARINE... Issued 407 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Light south winds are expected to develop today, with light south to southwest winds tonight into Monday. High pressure around 30.2 inches to the northeast of the region will then bring north to northeast winds on Tuesday. Low pressure around 29.8 inches should move from the Central Plains and skirt south of Lake Michigan Wednesday, bringing increasing winds and a more easterly wind shift by Thursday.

DDV

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.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. &&

$$

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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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