Myrtle Grove, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

378
FXUS64 KLIX 201827
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
127 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 126 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Hot and mostly dry weather continues this weekend.
- Next week looks to be more unsettled, with greater rainfall
   chances and more seasonable temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A weak zonal flow remains over the region through the short term.
At the surface, high pressure is still in control. Temperatures
will be the main focus through the short term along with mixing/drying
during the afternoon hours. Generally lower and mid 90s (or above
average temps) are anticipated to continue. That said, the CAMs
keep wanting to develop some shower/convective activity generally
north of the I10/12 corridor this afternoon. Kept POPs nonzero for
those areas. That said, any shower or storm development will have
limited coverage given the dry airmass that has settled in across
the lower and mid levels. That said, will need to watch Sunday
afternoon a bit closer for convective development. Models indicate
a very subtle H5 impulse over the Lower Mississippi River Valley,
which may be just enough to trigger a few more showers and
storms. Kept POPs minimal for now, but subsequent forecasts may
see this rise just a skosh. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Going into the start of the new workweek, the surface high
pressure will begin to spread eastward away from the region over
the western Atlantic. This will allow for a weak southerly return
flow to develop across the region. The return flow will help bring
in more and more low level moisture each day...increasing rain
chances during the afternoon and early evening hours each day
through around midweek or so. Eyes then refocus upstream as a
broader scale trough begins to dig southward across the central
plains and into the southeast US. A surface cold front is expected
to move southward and through the region Thursday and Friday.
Along and ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible. Continued 40-60 POPs respectively, but timing of
the frontal passage is a bit uncertain at this point. Prior runs
of the Globals indicated as early as Thursday, but more recent
have shown a bit later frontal passage. Regardless, the broad
scale troughing over the region and the frontal passage at some
point late in the week looks likely regardless of timing. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions expected through the cycle. Cannot rule out a stray
shower for the MS Terminals, however, most of the region will
remain dry. Winds will also be light and variable through the
period. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Surface high pressure and generally light surface winds will
continue through the weekend and into the start of the new
workweek. Overall winds less than 10 kts can be anticipated
through the forecast period. Waves will also be on the lower side
generally less than 3ft at most. That said, convective potential
will gradually increase as low level moisture increases later this
weekend and especially next week. One should expect winds and
seas to be locally higher in and around convection. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  67  89 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  71  92  69  91 /   0  20  10  30
ASD  69  90  69  89 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  74  92  75  91 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  71  90  71  88 /   0  10   0  10
PQL  69  91  69  89 /   0  10   0  10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion