Nelson, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

754
FXUS63 KMPX 011051
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
551 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Summer-like weather will continue through this weekend, with
  record highs possible both Friday and Saturday.
- Besides coming in later, the front for the weekend is also
  trending toward being a dry one.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Water vapor imagery and RAP h5 analysis shows MN & WI between a
blocking high up across the Great Lakes and an h5 low off the coast
of BC. This places us in a deep fetch of southwest flow, with summer-
like temperatures firmly in place. We still have ample high cloud
cover over us this morning, but this is expected to thin out through
the day, which will allow highs to warm a few degrees higher than
what we saw Tuesday, with upper 80s looking likely in southwest MN.
Tonight, we`ll stay in the southerly flow and the ECMWF continues to
paint some QPF across the western half of MN. This looks to be an
accas field and the CAMs don`t develop anything overnight, but we
did retain some 20 PoPs for western MN for Wednesday night. The
convection we`ve seen develop overnight in central Nebraska at least
gives some hope that we`ll see some activity as a weak short wave
currently over Wyoming moves through tonight. However, we don`t look
to have the same degree of instability they have to our west right
now, with forecast soundings showing a stubborn warm nose up around
600mb that may prove to be too much for the development of deep
moist convection.
Going into the weekend, the combination of the blocking high over
the eastern US and the positive tilt to the trough coming out of the
Rockies means we continue to see a slower progression of the front
for the weekend. We look to be in the heart of the thermal ridge
Friday night through Sunday morning. Saturday is looking to be the
warmest day, likely until May of next year, with Saturday looking to
be the day that brings the best chance of hitting 90 to the Twin
Cities. Besides the heat, forecast soundings from the GFS show that
we could be looking at south winds gusting to 40 mph, so it will be
a bit of a blast furnace feel to the day as well. Although we`ve
been talking a lot about the highs, lows will be quite mild as well.
The current forecast low for Saturday morning at MSP is 74 degrees
(a good 6 degrees above the normal high!), which if it happens would
be the highest minimum temperature ever observed in the month of
October for the Twin Cities (current record is 72 from the 3rd in
2005). Given the slower frontal timing, temperatures are trending up
for Sunday as well. Though 90s look unlikely, it still looks like
the weather for the Twin Cities marathon this weekend will have
temperatures near our July averages, with a low near 70 and highs in
the lower to middle 80s. So heat issues will be a big concern for
runners this weekend.
As for precip on the front, it is rapidly disappearing. Models are
starting to settle in on the idea of a surface low going across
northwest MN Sunday afternoon. Precipitation with this system looks
to be on the cold side of the low, with the warm sector remaining
dry and capped. Deterministic models are now pretty much dry for us,
with even the majority of the EPS members looking dry as well.
What still looks for certain is that once said cold front passes
through, temperatures will quickly return to normal levels for early
October, with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s next week. It is
also looking dry through the first half of next week, with the next
chance for rain not showing up until Wednesday night into
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
We will maintain southeast winds, though will have a diurnal
uptick in speeds on today. Our dense cirrus field will slowly
thin out from west to east during the day today, with another,
more accas cloud field possible tonight. There is a signal for
some isolated showers over western MN tonight, though that
chance is too low to include any sort of precip potential in the
TAFs, with the combo of dry low level air and warm/dry mid
level air helping to limit any shower development in the MPX
area tonight.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SSW 10-15kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SSW 15G25kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion